Financial DB Q2'20 - Air Liquide
Dashboards
- Group Performance
- Gases Revenue Growth Drivers
- Gases Underlying Growth Drivers
- Reported Growth by Region
- Comparable Growth by Region
- Americas Growth by Business
- Europe Growth by Business
- AsiaPacific Growth by Business
- Reported Growth by Business
- Comparable Growth by Business
- Industrial Merchant Growth by Region
- Merchant Pricing by Region
- Large Industries Growth by Region
- Healthcare Growth by Region
- Electronics Growth by Region
- Gases Profitability
- Capital Expenditure
Group Performance
- Total Sales
- Total Operating Income (Estimated)
- Total sales (Comparable)
• Reported Corporate sales fell by -11% YoY to €4.9Bn ($5.5Bn) in Q2 with smaller negative growth (-7%) on a comparable basis – significantly below the trend rate of recent years due to pandemic
• Gases & Services only marginally above overall Group performance by around 50bp at -6½% YoY
• Decline in Engineering reported sales continued at nearly -40% YoY on comparable basis in Q2 – although total sales (including interco were only down -20%). Global Markets and Technologies slipped into negative growth territory for the first time in recent quarters although with a smaller decline than other businesses
• AL only reports profitability and balance sheet half yearly – a small decline in operating income is estimated for Q2 on the basis of recent performance by region combined with productivity improvements. Group efficiency of around €110m in Q2 in line with target for 2020. This indicates an improvement in operating margin by uo to 100bp with cash flow to sales up by 170bp at 23%
• Updated company assumptions of peak impact of Covid in Q2 with limited local lockdowns and progressive recovery during H2 resulting in AL confident of further increasing operating margin in H2 and will be closing to matching prior year profit
Gases Revenue Growth Drivers
- Reported Growth
- Natural Gas
- Currency
- Acquisition/Divest
- Underlying Growth
• Reported Sales in Gases & Services at $5.3Bn in Q2 were significantly down at -11% YoY due to the global pandemic and its economic impact
• Impact of energy cost pass-through at over -3% in Q2 was close to its peak negative impact in early 2016
• Compounded by smaller negative impact of currency and net contribution from acquisitions and divestitures, both around –½% YoY in Q2
Gases Underlying Growth Drivers
- Total Underling Growth
- Volume
- Price
• Underlying growth performance in Gases & Services fell significantly in Q2 to be down -7% YoY
• Base business fell by over -7% YoY in Q2 only slightly offset by a marginal boost from new start-ups and ramp-ups
• Volume developments were the major factor with a slowing trend in recent quarters being significantly exacerbated by the Covid pandemic to be down by -8% YoY in Q2
• Pricing contributed 1% to the underlying growth performance, slightly down on recent quarters
Reported Growth by Region
- Europe
- Americas
- Asia Pacific
• Americas is the largest geographic region for AL accounting for over 40% of gases sales (primarily USA). Europe now represents one third, with Asia Pacific over 20% and M.East & Africa accounting for around 3%
• Reported sales growth was negative in all three major regions. Americas was weakest in Q2 at nearly -14% with Asia Pacific down -9½% (despite China sales recovering to be up +2%) and Europe -7 ½ % while the small M.East/Africa business was also down YoY by over –11%
• Impact of non-trading factors (currency, energy pass-through, acquisitions/divestments etc) in converting reported growth to comparable growth was most negative impact in Asia Pacific (-6%) and Europe (-5%) while Americas was impacted least (-2%)
Comparable Growth by Region
- Europe
- Americas
- Asia Pacific
• Asia growth on a comparable basis slowed further to be down nearly -3½% in Q2. China recovered but parts of Asia under restriction
• Europe underlying growth weakened significantly to be negative YoY by -2½% while Americas YoY growth declined even more sharply by -11½ % in Q2. Signs of recovery in Europe while US mixed and S.America in midst of crisis
• M.East/Africa at -9 ½ % YoY in Q2 was significantly below the positive trend of recent years with ongoing lockdowns in key countries. High loading at major onsites in S.Africa & S.Arabia; merchant sales hit by Covid
Americas Growth by Business
- Large Industries
- Industrial Customers
- Healthcare
- Electronics
• Americas business dominated by Industrial Merchant (70% of sales post Airgas) and Large Industries (under 20%) with Healthcare and Electronics 9% and 5% respectively
• Comparable growth in Industrial Merchant turned sharply negative in Q2 at -16%. Sharp volume decline especially Hardgoods but signs of recovery; solid Food & Pharma, low industrial end markets
• Large Industries returned to negative performance at -5½% YoY. Lower O2 volumes (chems, steel) but bottoming out; H2 lower YoY but stabilising: start-up in Argentina
• Healthcare growth slowed markedly in Q2 to around +1% - significantly below the average of recent years. Improved medical O2 in US; low elective procedures in North America; high homecare and medical gases in L.America
• Electronics growth rebounded to be up +10% YoY in Q2. High advanced materials and E&I
Europe Growth by Business
- Large Industries
- Industrial Merchant
- Healthcare
• Europe business equally balanced between Large Industries, Industrial Merchant and Healthcare (each accounting for around one third of sales) with Electronics only 3% of sales
• Large Industries growth weakened further in Q2 to be down -6½% YoY. Weak steel, low chemicals & refining (Benelux); E.Europe maintained with growth in Russia & Turkey
• Industrial Merchant negative growth worsened sharply in Q2 to be down nearly -14%, largely due to Covid and economic collapse. Low bulk and PG volumes; resilient food & pharma
• Healthcare remained the highest growth business in Europe by a significant margin at +11% YoY in Q2. Driven by strong hygiene & equipment; lower medical O2 sales; reduced homecare installations
AsiaPacific Growth by Business
- Large Industries
- Industrial Customers
- Electronics
• Asia-Pacific business balanced between Large Industries and Industrial Merchant (both over 30%) with Electronics also important (27%) but Healthcare relatively small (4%)
• Large Industries growth remained negative in Q2 close to -2%, its weakest performance since the 2009 recession. China growing again; Japan (O2 steel) & SE Asia low (Singapore refinery H2)
• Industrial Merchant growth weakened again to be down -6% YoY in Q2. China slowed to +6% (strong cylinders, onsites); resilient techno & research markets; volume declines in Japan, Singapore, Australia
• Electronics turned negative at -1½% in Q2 – its weakest performance in recent years – but again over +10% ex E&I; strong advanced material & carrier gases
Reported Growth by Business
- Large Industries
- Industrial Merchant
- Electronics
- Healthcare
• Industrial Merchant represents over 45% of total gases sales with Large Industries over 25%, Healthcare nearly 20% and Electronics under 10%
• Range of reported performance between global businesses widened in Q2 with Industrial Merchant and Large Industries sharply down YoY (-14% and -20% respectively) while Electronics and Healthcare both remained positive albeit slowing from the previous quarter (at 2% and 6% respectively)
• Impact of energy cost pass-through, currency and acquisitions/ divestments (ie conversion from reported to comparable growth) -15% in Large Industries (largely due to energy pass-through) while impact in other businesses is relatively small
Comparable Growth by Business
- Large Industries
- Industrial Customers
- Electronics
- Healthcare
• Large Industries comparable growth in Q2 moved further into negative territory at -4%, its weakest performance in recent years.
• Global Industrial Merchant sales were down nearly -15% YoY in Q2
• Electronics overall underlying growth eased back towards a flat performance YoY but +8.0% growth excl. E&I; strong Carrier Gases & Advanced Materials; lower E&I globally vs. high prior year
• Healthcare YoY remained close to +8%, above the average for recent years. Strong Medical O2 volumes to fight Covid partially offset by postponed elective procedures; continued high demand for Hygiene products and Ventilator manufacturing; fewer new homecare installations partially offset by new needs linked to Covid
• Wide and increased range in end market growth performance globally
Industrial Merchant Growth by Region
- Europe
- Americas
- Asia Pacific
• Over a quarter of global Industrial Merchant sales are represented by each of Bulk Gases and Packaged Gases with around 20% in Equipment and Installation, over 10% in Specialty Gases with Services and small on-sites each under 10%
• Americas accounts for over 60% of Industrial Merchant sales, Europe for over 20% and Asia Pacific for under 15%.
• Americas’ underlying merchant growth sales weakened sharply in Q2 to be down over -15% YoY
• Europe growth also weakened significantly at --14% in Q2
• Asia Pacific slowed further to -6% YoY although a smaller fall than other regions. China positive (vs all other regions negative) – excluding China this region also down by around -15%
• Amongst end markets there was resilient growth in food & pharma but weaker construction & metal fabrication; lower helium demand
Merchant Pricing by Region
- Total
- Europe
- Americas
- Asia Pacific
• Global merchant pricing impact YoY slowed to under +3% in Q2
• Both Asia Pacific and Europe slowed again in Q2 with the former now virtually flat YoY while the latter slipped to under +1½%. Asia helium pricing fading
• Americas merchant pricing accelerated to be up +4% YoY – positive rentals
• Overall helium pricing still contributing nearly 1/3 of global price impact
• These pricing trends indicate Americas volumes down by around -20%, significantly weaker than the other two regions with Asia Pacific estimated to show the smallest volume decline
• Americas prices flat in electronics and healthcare
Large Industries Growth by Region
- Europe
- Americas
- Asia Pacific
• Air gases account for just over half of Large Industry global sales with nearly 40% in H2 and CO and under 10% from cogeneration, steam and power
• Europe accounts for over 40% of Large Industry sales, Americas for over 30% and Asia Pacific for 25%.
• All three regions showed negative comparable growth YoY in the same quarter for the first time in recent years
• Europe growth was weakest at more than -6½% in Q2, its lowest growth since late 2017
• Americas growth returned to negative -5½% YoY
• Weak air gases volumes in Europe, US & Japan due to low steel & Chemicals; softer decline in H2 volumes in Europe & US
• Growth in Asia Pacific remained at -2% YoY but China recovered to growth
Healthcare Growth by Region
- Europe Healthcare
- Americas Healthcare
• Nearly half of AL Healthcare sales are from Homecare compared with a third from Medical Gases while10% are currently in Hygiene and smaller amounts in Specialty Ingredients and Equipment
• Europe represents over 70% of Healthcare sales with Americas over 20%
• Europe healthcare growth maintained at around +10% - progressive return to normal in Europe starting end of Q2
• Americas comparable healthcare sales slowed towards flat performance YoY
Electronics Growth by Region
- Americas Electronics
- Asia Pacific Electronics
• Gases represent some 40% of AL’s Electronics business sales, with 20% in Advanced Materials, around 15% in each of Electronic Materials and E&I with less than 10% in Services
• Asia Pacific accounts for over 70% of Electronics sales with Americas over 20%.
• Asia Pacific and Americas showed contrasting fortunes in Q2 growth with Americas growth improving to over +5% while Asia Pacific slipped further into negative growth territory for the first time since early 2017 but would have been significantly positive excluding E&I
Gases Profitability
- OROS
- EBITDA Margin
- OROCE
• AL does not report profits on a quarterly basis – however the company has reported higher positive cash flow in H1 that indicates this reached a ratio of more than 23% of sales in Q2
• However, on the basis of business mix combined with efficiency improvements all three profitability measures, Operating Margin, EBITDA margin and OROCE (on Gasworld methodology for comparison), are all estimated to have maintained their improving trend of recent years in Q1-2 with underlying operating margin up by some 100bp
• Group efficiency gains at over €100m in Q2 were in line with meeting 2020 target. Maintained trend in profitability also helped by ‘temporary’ Covid related savings that more than offset €45m of additional Covid related costs and reduced activity
Capital Expenditure
- Capex Spend
• AL gases investment slipped back from recent peak but at over $680m in Q2 continued the rising trend of recent years. Capex relative to sales also eased to under 13% - albeit above the average of recent quarters
• Investment decisions continue to run at €0.6-0.7Bn per quarter – record high of more than 1/3 in electronics sector
• Investment backlog increased to €2.9Bn at end Q2. Electronics Asia start-up due in Q3 with further ones due in Large Industries in N.America and Europe in Q4
• Investing €100m at NLMK steelworks in Lipetsk, Russia for new 1000MTD ASU (due onstream 2023) plus existing NKLM production plants for H2 and rare gases
• Announced investment of €125m to build first world-scale ASU at Moerdijk, Neths with an energy storage system. Capacity of 2000MTD O2 for pipeline and merchant supply from 2022
• Investing over $100m in 770TPD ASU on its Texas pipeline to supply Steel Dynamics Inc, Supply commences 2021
• Investment backlog does not include announced investment of €440m to acquire 16 ASUs with Q2 capacity of 42,000 MTD supplying Sasol in S.Africa, currently the largest O2 facility in the world. Long term sales impact of €400m
• Portfolio of opportunities within 12 months rose nearly 10% sequentially at €2.9Bn in Q2, close to its highest level since 2015. Well balanced by geography; increased share of Electronics and Clean mobility projects; more in-house production takeover opportunities
• Portfolio management actions continue with divestiture of 2 non-core businesses close but no further bolt-on acquisitions in Q2
No comments yet