OECD Industrial Production Trends

Index 2015=100
  • United States
  • Europe
  • Japan
,United States,Europe,Japan 2006 Q1,97.1,95.8,111.1 2006 Q2,97.7,97.5,112.9 2006 Q3,98.1,98.0,114.0 2006 Q4,98.3,99.4,115.2 2007 Q1,99.2,101.0,114.9 2007 Q2,100.4,101.5,115.6 2007 Q3,100.7,102.4,117.6 2007 Q4,101.0,103.0,118.3 2008 Q1,100.6,104.3,119.0 2008 Q2,99.1,103.0,117.1 2008 Q3,95.9,100.6,112.8 2008 Q4,91.8,94.3,102.4 2009 Q1,86.6,86.6,82.3 2009 Q2,84.1,86.0,86.4 2009 Q3,85.4,87.6,91.2 2009 Q4,86.7,89.0,97.6 2010 Q1,88.4,90.5,101.4 2010 Q2,90.2,93.1,102.5 2010 Q3,91.4,93.9,103.9 2010 Q4,91.7,95.9,103.3 2011 Q1,92.2,97.1,99.5 2011 Q2,92.6,97.1,95.5 2011 Q3,93.6,97.6,101.8 2011 Q4,94.6,97.3,102.9 2012 Q1,95.5,96.5,103.7 2012 Q2,96.1,96.4,101.5 2012 Q3,96.1,96.3,98.3 2012 Q4,96.6,94.7,96.8 2013 Q1,97.3,94.8,96.8 2013 Q2,97.8,95.9,98.8 2013 Q3,98.1,96.3,100.6 2013 Q4,98.8,97.0,101.8 2014 Q1,99.5,97.6,103.6 2014 Q2,100.9,97.7,100.8 2014 Q3,101.5,97.7,100.2 2014 Q4,102.1,98.1,100.5 2015 Q1,101.4,99.1,100.6 2015 Q2,100.0,100.1,100.0 2015 Q3,100.0,100.4,99.9 2015 Q4,98.7,100.4,99.6 2016 Q1,98.2,101.5,99.9 2016 Q2,97.6,101.3,99.0 2016 Q3,98.0,101.2,100.4 2016 Q4,98.4,102.8,101.6 2017 Q1,98.9,103.7,101.2 2017 Q2,100.3,104.6,103.0 2017 Q3,100.1,106.5,103.0 2017 Q4,101.9,108.3,104.2 2018 Q1,102.5,107.7,103.3 2018 Q2,103.7,107.7,104.2 2018 Q3,105.0,107.6,103.6 2018 Q4,106.0,106.9,104.6 2019 Q1,105.5,107.6,102.1 2019 Q2,104.9,107.1,102.9 2019 Q3,105.2,106.8,102.3 2019 Q4,105.2,106.6,98.4
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Global output growth slipped towards a flat performance YoY in Q4 – its weakest performance since the 2008/9 economic crisis

OECD output (including most developed economies) marginally below its 2018 peak after falling for the last 4 quarters

Substantially driven by weakness in Japan which after latest decline was some -6% below its recent peak and still significantly down on the 2008 historic peak (by -18%)

USA flat output through 2019

Europe output marginally down from recent historic peak 



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Developed Economies Industrial Growth

% change YoY
  • USA
  • Europe
  • Japan
,USA,Europe,Japan 2011 Q1,4.2,7.3,-1.9 2011 Q2,2.6,4.3,-6.8 2011 Q3,2.5,3.9,-2.0 2011 Q4,3.2,1.4,-0.4 2012 Q1,3.6,-0.7,4.2 2012 Q2,3.8,-0.8,6.3 2012 Q3,2.6,-1.3,-3.4 2012 Q4,2.1,-2.7,-6.0 2013 Q1,2.0,-1.7,-6.7 2013 Q2,1.8,-0.5,-2.7 2013 Q3,2.1,0.0,2.3 2013 Q4,2.3,2.4,5.2 2014 Q1,2.3,2.9,7.1 2014 Q2,3.2,1.8,2.0 2014 Q3,3.4,1.4,-0.4 2014 Q4,3.4,1.1,-1.3 2015 Q1,1.8,1.6,-2.9 2015 Q2,-0.9,2.5,-0.8 2015 Q3,-1.5,2.8,-0.3 2015 Q4,-3.4,2.4,-0.9 2016 Q1,-3.2,2.4,-0.7 2016 Q2,-2.4,1.2,-0.9 2016 Q3,-1.9,0.8,0.5 2016 Q4,-0.3,2.4,2.0 2017 Q1,0.8,2.2,1.3 2017 Q2,2.8,3.3,4.0 2017 Q3,2.1,5.3,2.5 2017 Q4,3.6,5.3,2.6 2018 Q1,3.6,3.9,2.1 2018 Q2,3.3,2.9,1.1 2018 Q3,4.9,1.0,0.6 2018 Q4,4.0,-1.2,0.4 2019 Q1,2.9,-0.1,-1.2 2019 Q2,1.2,-0.5,-1.2 2019 Q3,0.2,-0.8,-1.2 2019 Q4,-0.7,-0.3,-6.0
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Q4 saw all three regions down YoY with Europe and US both down by less than -1% but Japan was down by -6%, its worst YoY performance since 2013

Europe negative YoY since late-2018 – US was negative for the first time since late-2016



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Developing Economies Industrial Growth

% change YoY
  • Brazil
  • Russia
  • India
  • China
,Brazil,Russia,India,China 2011 Q1,2.5,5.3,7.8,14.8 2011 Q2,0.5,6.1,7.0,13.9 2011 Q3,0.2,5.3,3.1,13.8 2011 Q4,-1.5,3.6,1.4,13.1 2012 Q1,-5.3,4.0,-0.4,12.1 2012 Q2,-4.4,2.7,-0.8,10.3 2012 Q3,-0.5,3.5,-0.6,9.2 2012 Q4,0.8,2.0,-0.3,9.6 2013 Q1,2.6,1.7,-1.0,10.1 2013 Q2,4.2,2.7,1.0,9.1 2013 Q3,1.6,0.5,4.4,9.7 2013 Q4,0.1,2.6,3.1,10.1 2014 Q1,0.0,1.9,4.5,8.7 2014 Q2,-4.4,2.0,5.5,8.8 2014 Q3,-3.9,3.0,4.1,8.0 2014 Q4,-3.5,2.5,4.0,7.6 2015 Q1,-5.5,0.7,2.6,6.4 2015 Q2,-6.3,-1.1,1.1,6.3 2015 Q3,-9.7,-0.7,2.2,5.9 2015 Q4,-11.7,-1.5,4.3,5.9 2016 Q1,-10.4,0.0,4.3,5.9 2016 Q2,-7.5,1.2,7.1,6.1 2016 Q3,-5.5,2.2,4.4,6.1 2016 Q4,-2.5,4.9,4.0,6.1 2017 Q1,1.1,3.6,4.2,6.7 2017 Q2,1.2,4.1,1.9,6.8 2017 Q3,3.4,2.7,3.5,6.3 2017 Q4,5.8,-0.1,5.8,6.2 2018 Q1,3.1,2.9,6.6,6.8 2018 Q2,0.5,2.6,5.1,6.6 2018 Q3,1.4,2.7,5.3,6.0 2018 Q4,-1.8,3.3,3.6,6.0 2019 Q1,-2.1,2.2,1.5,6.4 2019 Q2,0.1,2.6,3.0,5.6 2019 Q3,-2.0,2.5,-0.4,5.0 2019 Q4,-0.6,2.1,-0.8,5.9
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China output growth continued to be officially reported at nearly +6% YoY in late-2019 – but significantly down on average for recent years

Brazil and India both appear to be negative YoY in Q3 and Q4 2019 – in the latter case this represents a significantly lower performance than the average of the previous 6 years

Russia reports continued trend growth of around +2%



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Global Inflation (CPI)

% change YoY
  • OECD
  • Global
,OECD,Global 2011 Q1,2.2,3.4 2011 Q2,2.9,4.0 2011 Q3,3.1,4.2 2011 Q4,2.9,3.7 2012 Q1,2.7,3.2 2012 Q2,2.1,2.7 2012 Q3,2.0,2.5 2012 Q4,2.0,2.6 2013 Q1,1.7,2.5 2013 Q2,1.5,2.4 2013 Q3,1.7,2.5 2013 Q4,1.5,2.4 2014 Q1,1.6,2.2 2014 Q2,2.1,2.7 2014 Q3,1.9,2.5 2014 Q4,1.5,2.1 2015 Q1,0.6,1.8 2015 Q2,0.6,1.8 2015 Q3,0.6,1.9 2015 Q4,0.8,2.0 2016 Q1,1.0,2.0 2016 Q2,0.9,1.9 2016 Q3,1.1,1.8 2016 Q4,1.6,2.1 2017 Q1,2.4,2.4 2017 Q2,2.2,2.1 2017 Q3,2.2,2.2 2017 Q4,2.3,2.3 2018 Q1,2.2,2.3 2018 Q2,2.6,2.5 2018 Q3,2.9,3.0 2018 Q4,2.8,2.8 2019 Q1,2.2,2.4 2019 Q2,2.3,2.7 2019 Q3,1.9,2.3 2019 Q4,1.8,2.6
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Global inflation as represented by changes in Consumer Price Index appears to have edged higher in latest quarter to average around +2¼% through 2019

Primarily driven by increasing rates in Developing Economies with OECD inflation rates easing since mid-2018



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Gases Volume and Prices vs Global Output Growth and Inflation

% change YoY
  • Gases Volume
  • Gases Prices
  • Global real output growth
  • Global inflation (CPI)
,Gases Volume,Gases Prices,Global real output growth,Global inflation (CPI) 2014 Q1,2.7%,1.0%,4.0%,2.2% 2014 Q2,2.1%,0.9%,3.5%,2.7% 2014 Q3,2.4%,1.3%,3.0%,2.5% 2014 Q4,2.1%,0.8%,2.6%,2.1% 2015 Q1,1.8%,0.3%,1.7%,1.8% 2015 Q2,1.3%,0.6%,1.3%,1.8% 2015 Q3,1.2%,0.5%,1.4%,1.9% 2015 Q4,0.9%,0.5%,0.7%,2.0% 2016 Q1,1.2%,0.3%,1.0%,2.0% 2016 Q2,0.9%,0.0%,1.1%,1.9% 2016 Q3,0.0%,0.0%,1.0%,1.8% 2016 Q4,1.4%,0.1%,2.3%,2.1% 2017 Q1,2.8%,0.0%,2.7%,2.4% 2017 Q2,3.3%,-0.1%,3.6%,2.1% 2017 Q3,4.3%,0.2%,4.0%,2.2% 2017 Q4,4.9%,0.4%,4.2%,2.3% 2018 Q1,4.4%,0.9%,4.0%,2.3% 2018 Q2,4.7%,1.2%,3.5%,2.5% 2018 Q3,4.9%,1.4%,3.1%,3.0% 2018 Q4,3.5%,1.3%,1.9%,2.8% 2019 Q1,3.3%,1.7%,1.6%,2.4% 2019 Q2,2.1%,2.4%,1.1%,2.7% 2019 Q3,1.6%,2.0%,0.5%,2.3% 2019 Q4,0.3%,1.8%,0.2%,2.6%
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Global economic performance can be compared to combined performance of the major industrial gas companies

The cyclical pattern and rate of gases volume growth has broadly followed that of global industrial output growth in recent years with a marginally under-performance in the last 2 years disappearing in Q4 when both measures showed similar flat growth rates

Historically industrial gases prices have risen less than global inflation as represented by increase in the Consumer Price Index – the latter is clearly a broad measure of inflation with many factors impacting it while industrial gas price inflation is significantly impacted by energy cost inflation and the solid productivity gains achieved in the gases sector. The margin between gas price inflation and overall global inflation (CPI) narrowed significantly in 2019 as the former accelerated



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Global Energy Prices

Index 2010 = 100
  • Crude Oil (Average)
  • Natural Gas (Average)
  • Coal (Australia)
,Crude Oil (Average),Natural Gas (Average),Coal (Australia) 2008 Q1,120.6,163.8,115.3 2008 Q2,153.0,204.7,140.2 2008 Q3,146.4,188.2,164.6 2008 Q4,70.9,162.5,94.0 2009 Q1,55.8,119.7,72.7 2009 Q2,74.9,89.0,67.2 2009 Q3,74.9,76.6,67.2 2009 Q4,95.5,96.4,78.5 2010 Q1,97.5,111.5,96.2 2010 Q2,98.9,95.6,100.6 2010 Q3,95.5,98.8,94.4 2010 Q4,108.1,94.1,108.8 2011 Q1,126.2,103.8,130.4 2011 Q2,139.2,111.3,121.3 2011 Q3,130.4,112.9,122.6 2011 Q4,130.5,105.9,116.2 2012 Q1,142.3,95.6,115.0 2012 Q2,130.1,94.0,96.6 2012 Q3,130.1,99.7,90.4 2012 Q4,128.9,107.4,87.8 2013 Q1,133.0,109.6,93.9 2013 Q2,125.6,118.6,87.0 2013 Q3,135.9,108.4,78.2 2013 Q4,132.2,111.7,82.9 2014 Q1,131.2,127.8,77.9 2014 Q2,134.5,115.5,73.5 2014 Q3,127.0,102.0,68.6 2014 Q4,94.4,101.6,63.6 2015 Q1,65.3,85.6,61.9 2015 Q2,76.5,74.6,59.7 2015 Q3,61.7,72.7,58.1 2015 Q4,53.4,61.8,52.9 2016 Q1,41.4,52.6,51.5 2016 Q2,56.7,49.8,52.5 2016 Q3,56.6,60.3,68.2 2016 Q4,62.1,65.0,94.2 2017 Q1,66.9,68.9,82.5 2017 Q2,62.5,68.4,80.9 2017 Q3,63.5,66.9,94.4 2017 Q4,74.3,70.2,99.7 2018 Q1,81.7,74.5,103.9 2018 Q2,90.3,76.3,105.9 2018 Q3,92.4,82.8,118.3 2018 Q4,81.4,94.1,104.7 2019 Q1,76.5,72.5,96.8 2019 Q2,82.4,58.3,81.4 2019 Q3,75.5,54.3,68.6 2019 Q4,76.3,59.5,68.2
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Key global energy price indicators were broadly flat sequentially in Q4 but YoY all were reported lower than in 2018 and remain substantially below peak levels in 2008 and 2011-3  


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Exchange Rates vs US Dollar

Index 2005 = 100
  • Euro
  • Sterling
  • Yen
  • Renminbi
,Euro,Sterling,Yen,Renminbi 2006 Q1,103,104,106,98 2006 Q2,99,100,104,98 2006 Q3,98,97,105,97 2006 Q4,96,95,107,96 2007 Q1,95,93,108,95 2007 Q2,92,92,110,94 2007 Q3,91,90,107,92 2007 Q4,86,89,103,91 2008 Q1,83,92,95,87 2008 Q2,80,92,95,85 2008 Q3,83,95,98,83 2008 Q4,94,116,87,83 2009 Q1,96,127,85,83 2009 Q2,91,118,88,83 2009 Q3,87,111,85,83 2009 Q4,84,111,81,83 2010 Q1,90,117,82,83 2010 Q2,98,122,83,83 2010 Q3,96,117,78,83 2010 Q4,92,115,75,81 2011 Q1,91,114,75,80 2011 Q2,86,111,74,79 2011 Q3,88,113,71,78 2011 Q4,92,116,70,77 2012 Q1,95,116,72,77 2012 Q2,97,115,73,77 2012 Q3,99,115,71,77 2012 Q4,96,113,74,77 2013 Q1,94,117,84,77 2013 Q2,95,118,90,76 2013 Q3,94,117,90,75 2013 Q4,91,112,91,75 2014 Q1,91,110,93,75 2014 Q2,91,108,93,75 2014 Q3,94,109,94,75 2014 Q4,100,115,104,75 2015 Q1,110,120,108,75 2015 Q2,112,119,110,75 2015 Q3,112,117,111,76 2015 Q4,114,120,110,78 2016 Q1,113,127,105,80 2016 Q2,110,127,98,80 2016 Q3,111,139,93,81 2016 Q4,115,147,99,83 2017 Q1,117,147,103,84 2017 Q2,113,142,101,84 2017 Q3,106,139,101,81 2017 Q4,106,137,102,81 2018 Q1,101,131,98,78 2018 Q2,104,134,99,78 2018 Q3,107,139,101,83 2018 Q4,109,141,102,84 2019 Q1,110,160,100,82 2019 Q2,111,162,100,83 2019 Q3,112,164,97,86 2019 Q4,112,164,99,86
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Key currencies continued their relatively stable performance of recent quarters in Q4 of 2019

Significant trends in recent years have seen the Chinese Renminbi and British Sterling weakening vs the US Dollar while the Japanese Yen has risen since 2015



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