OECD Industrial Production Trends

Index 2015 = 100
  • United States
  • Europe
  • Japan
,United States,Europe,Japan 2006 Q1,97.1,95.6,111.1 2006 Q2,97.7,97.2,112.9 2006 Q3,98.1,97.9,114.0 2006 Q4,98.3,99.2,115.2 2007 Q1,99.2,100.8,114.9 2007 Q2,100.4,101.2,115.6 2007 Q3,100.7,102.2,117.6 2007 Q4,101.0,102.9,118.3 2008 Q1,100.6,103.9,119.0 2008 Q2,99.1,102.7,117.1 2008 Q3,95.9,100.4,112.8 2008 Q4,91.8,94.2,102.4 2009 Q1,86.6,86.4,82.3 2009 Q2,84.1,85.8,86.4 2009 Q3,85.4,87.7,91.2 2009 Q4,86.7,89.1,97.6 2010 Q1,88.4,90.5,101.4 2010 Q2,90.2,93.0,102.5 2010 Q3,91.4,94.0,103.9 2010 Q4,91.7,96.1,103.3 2011 Q1,92.2,97.2,99.5 2011 Q2,92.6,97.0,95.5 2011 Q3,93.6,97.6,101.8 2011 Q4,94.6,97.4,102.9 2012 Q1,95.5,96.5,103.7 2012 Q2,96.1,96.3,101.5 2012 Q3,96.1,96.4,98.3 2012 Q4,96.6,94.8,96.8 2013 Q1,97.3,94.8,96.8 2013 Q2,97.8,95.8,98.8 2013 Q3,98.1,96.4,100.6 2013 Q4,98.8,97.1,101.8 2014 Q1,99.5,97.5,103.6 2014 Q2,100.9,97.5,100.8 2014 Q3,101.5,97.7,100.2 2014 Q4,102.1,98.1,100.5 2015 Q1,101.4,99.1,100.6 2015 Q2,100.0,99.9,100.0 2015 Q3,100.0,100.4,99.9 2015 Q4,98.7,100.5,99.6 2016 Q1,98.2,101.4,99.9 2016 Q2,97.6,101.3,99.0 2016 Q3,98.0,101.2,100.4 2016 Q4,98.4,102.9,101.6 2017 Q1,98.9,103.6,101.2 2017 Q2,100.3,104.6,103.0 2017 Q3,100.1,106.5,103.0 2017 Q4,101.9,108.4,104.2 2018 Q1,102.5,107.5,103.3 2018 Q2,103.7,107.6,104.2 2018 Q3,105.0,107.5,103.6 2018 Q4,106.0,106.9,104.6 2019 Q1,105.5,107.5,102.6 2019 Q2,104.9,106.9,102.7 2019 Q3,105.1,106.8,101.6 2019 Q4,105.2,106.2,97.9 2020 Q1,103.3,103.6,98.3
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Global output growth slipped towards a flat performance YoY in Q4 – its weakest performance since the 2008/9 economic crisis

OECD output (including most developed economies) slipped sharply in Q1 after falling steadily from its 2018 peak  for the last 4 quarters

Substantially driven by weakness in Japan which after latest decline was some -6% below its recent peak and still significantly down on the 2008 historic peak (by -18%)

USA flat output through 2019 but weakened in Q1 but now -2% below its peak

Europe output marginally down from recent historic peak by -3%



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Developed Economies Industrial Growth

% change YoY
  • USA
  • Europe
  • Japan
,USA,Europe,Japan 2011 Q1,4.2%,7.4%,-1.9% 2011 Q2,2.6%,4.3%,-6.8% 2011 Q3,2.5%,3.9%,-2.0% 2011 Q4,3.2%,1.3%,-0.4% 2012 Q1,3.6%,-0.7%,4.2% 2012 Q2,3.8%,-0.8%,6.3% 2012 Q3,2.6%,-1.3%,-3.4% 2012 Q4,2.1%,-2.6%,-6.0% 2013 Q1,2.0%,-1.8%,-6.7% 2013 Q2,1.8%,-0.5%,-2.7% 2013 Q3,2.1%,0.0%,2.3% 2013 Q4,2.3%,2.4%,5.2% 2014 Q1,2.3%,2.9%,7.1% 2014 Q2,3.2%,1.8%,2.0% 2014 Q3,3.4%,1.4%,-0.4% 2014 Q4,3.4%,1.0%,-1.3% 2015 Q1,1.8%,1.6%,-2.9% 2015 Q2,-0.9%,2.5%,-0.8% 2015 Q3,-1.5%,2.8%,-0.3% 2015 Q4,-3.4%,2.4%,-0.9% 2016 Q1,-3.2%,2.3%,-0.7% 2016 Q2,-2.4%,1.3%,-0.9% 2016 Q3,-1.9%,0.7%,0.5% 2016 Q4,-0.3%,2.4%,2.0% 2017 Q1,0.8%,2.2%,1.3% 2017 Q2,2.8%,3.3%,4.0% 2017 Q3,2.1%,5.3%,2.5% 2017 Q4,3.6%,5.3%,2.6% 2018 Q1,3.6%,3.8%,2.1% 2018 Q2,3.3%,2.8%,1.1% 2018 Q3,4.9%,0.9%,0.6% 2018 Q4,4.0%,-1.3%,0.4% 2019 Q1,2.9%,0.0%,-0.7% 2019 Q2,1.2%,-0.6%,-1.4% 2019 Q3,0.2%,-0.7%,-1.9% 2019 Q4,-0.7%,-0.6%,-6.4% 2020 Q1,-2.0%,-3.7%,-4.2%
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Q1 saw all three regions again sharply down YoY with Europe and US down by -2% and -3% respectively but Japan was down by over -4%, up from its worst YoY performance since 2013

This is second successive quarter when all three geographies have been negative – for the first time in recent years



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Developing Economies Industrial Growth

% change YoY
  • Brazil
  • India
  • Russia
  • China
,Brazil,India,Russia,China 2011 Q1,2.5%,7.8%,5.1%,14.8% 2011 Q2,0.5%,7.0%,6.2%,13.9% 2011 Q3,0.2%,3.1%,5.4%,13.8% 2011 Q4,-1.5%,1.4%,3.7%,13.1% 2012 Q1,-5.3%,-0.4%,3.6%,12.1% 2012 Q2,-4.5%,-0.8%,2.9%,10.3% 2012 Q3,-0.6%,-0.6%,3.7%,9.2% 2012 Q4,0.8%,-0.3%,2.5%,9.6% 2013 Q1,2.6%,-1.0%,0.8%,10.1% 2013 Q2,4.2%,1.0%,2.7%,9.1% 2013 Q3,1.7%,4.4%,0.2%,9.7% 2013 Q4,0.1%,3.1%,3.9%,10.1% 2014 Q1,0.0%,4.5%,7.3%,8.7% 2014 Q2,-4.4%,5.5%,5.8%,8.8% 2014 Q3,-3.9%,4.1%,6.5%,8.0% 2014 Q4,-3.5%,4.0%,3.7%,7.6% 2015 Q1,-5.5%,2.6%,1.4%,6.4% 2015 Q2,-6.3%,1.1%,-0.5%,6.3% 2015 Q3,-9.7%,2.2%,0.3%,5.9% 2015 Q4,-11.7%,4.3%,-0.3%,5.9% 2016 Q1,-10.4%,4.3%,0.0%,5.9% 2016 Q2,-7.5%,7.1%,0.6%,6.1% 2016 Q3,-5.5%,4.4%,1.6%,6.1% 2016 Q4,-2.5%,4.0%,4.1%,6.1% 2017 Q1,1.1%,4.2%,4.6%,6.7% 2017 Q2,1.2%,1.9%,5.6%,6.8% 2017 Q3,3.3%,3.5%,4.6%,6.3% 2017 Q4,5.9%,5.8%,1.1%,6.2% 2018 Q1,3.0%,6.6%,3.2%,6.8% 2018 Q2,0.5%,5.1%,3.0%,6.6% 2018 Q3,1.6%,5.3%,2.7%,6.0% 2018 Q4,-1.8%,3.6%,5.0%,6.0% 2019 Q1,-2.2%,1.5%,2.6%,6.4% 2019 Q2,0.1%,3.0%,2.1%,5.6% 2019 Q3,-2.0%,-0.4%,2.8%,5.0% 2019 Q4,-0.5%,-0.8%,1.7%,5.9% 2020 Q1,-1.7%,-3.4%,0.7%,-9.4%
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China output growth turned significantly negative for the first time in many years in Q1 as Covid hit the economy

Brazil and India both slipped further into negative territory YoY in Q1 – in the latter case this represents a significantly lower performance than the average of the previous 6 years whereas Brazil has shown an erratic growth performance historically

Russia reports growth slipping towards a flat performance YoY in Q1



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Global Inflation (CPI)

% change YoY
  • Global
  • OECD
,Global,OECD 2011 Q1,3.4,2.3 2011 Q2,4.0,2.9 2011 Q3,4.2,3.1 2011 Q4,3.7,3.0 2012 Q1,3.2,2.7 2012 Q2,2.7,2.2 2012 Q3,2.5,2.0 2012 Q4,2.6,2.0 2013 Q1,2.5,1.7 2013 Q2,2.4,1.5 2013 Q3,2.5,1.7 2013 Q4,2.4,1.5 2014 Q1,2.2,1.6 2014 Q2,2.6,2.1 2014 Q3,2.4,1.9 2014 Q4,2.1,1.5 2015 Q1,1.8,0.6 2015 Q2,1.9,0.6 2015 Q3,1.9,0.6 2015 Q4,2.0,0.8 2016 Q1,2.1,1.1 2016 Q2,1.9,1.0 2016 Q3,1.9,1.1 2016 Q4,2.1,1.6 2017 Q1,2.4,2.4 2017 Q2,2.1,2.2 2017 Q3,2.2,2.2 2017 Q4,2.3,2.3 2018 Q1,2.3,2.2 2018 Q2,2.5,2.6 2018 Q3,2.9,2.9 2018 Q4,2.8,2.7 2019 Q1,2.4,2.2 2019 Q2,2.7,2.3 2019 Q3,2.4,1.9 2019 Q4,2.7,1.9 2020 Q1,2.9,2.1
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Global inflation as represented by changes in Consumer Price Index appears to have edged up towards +3% in Q1 of 2020 returning to its recent highest

Primarily driven by increasing rates in Developing Economies with OECD inflation rates below recent peaks since mid-2018 although also edging up sequentially



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Global Energy Prices

Index 2010 = 100
  • Crude Oil (Average)
  • Natural Gas (Average)
  • Coal (Australia)
,Crude Oil (Average),Natural Gas (Average),Coal (Australia) 2008 Q1,120.6,163.8,115.3 2008 Q2,153.0,204.7,140.2 2008 Q3,146.4,188.2,164.6 2008 Q4,70.9,162.5,94.0 2009 Q1,55.8,119.7,72.7 2009 Q2,74.9,89.0,67.2 2009 Q3,74.9,76.6,67.2 2009 Q4,95.5,96.4,78.5 2010 Q1,97.5,111.5,96.2 2010 Q2,98.9,95.6,100.6 2010 Q3,95.5,98.8,94.4 2010 Q4,108.1,94.1,108.8 2011 Q1,126.2,103.8,130.4 2011 Q2,139.2,111.3,121.3 2011 Q3,130.4,112.9,122.6 2011 Q4,130.5,105.9,116.2 2012 Q1,142.3,95.6,115.0 2012 Q2,130.1,94.0,96.6 2012 Q3,130.1,99.7,90.4 2012 Q4,128.9,107.4,87.8 2013 Q1,133.0,109.6,93.9 2013 Q2,125.6,118.6,87.0 2013 Q3,135.9,108.4,78.2 2013 Q4,132.2,111.7,82.9 2014 Q1,131.2,127.8,77.9 2014 Q2,134.5,115.5,73.5 2014 Q3,127.0,102.0,68.6 2014 Q4,94.4,101.6,63.6 2015 Q1,65.3,85.6,61.9 2015 Q2,76.5,74.6,59.7 2015 Q3,61.7,72.7,58.1 2015 Q4,53.4,61.8,52.9 2016 Q1,41.4,52.6,51.5 2016 Q2,56.7,49.8,52.5 2016 Q3,56.6,60.3,68.2 2016 Q4,62.1,65.0,94.2 2017 Q1,66.9,68.9,82.5 2017 Q2,62.5,68.4,80.9 2017 Q3,63.5,66.9,94.4 2017 Q4,74.3,70.2,99.7 2018 Q1,81.7,74.5,103.9 2018 Q2,90.3,76.3,105.9 2018 Q3,92.4,82.8,118.3 2018 Q4,81.4,94.1,104.7 2019 Q1,76.5,72.5,96.8 2019 Q2,82.4,58.3,81.4 2019 Q3,75.5,54.3,68.6 2019 Q4,76.3,59.5,68.2 2020 Q1,62.1,49.7,68.7
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Key global energy price indicators all fell in Q1 with oil prices at their lowest level in over 10 years while natural gas (and coal) were edging down towards their 2016 low

YoY oil prices were down -20% in Q1 with natural gas down around -30% with Europe down more and Japan less



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Exchange Rates vs US Dollar

Index 2005 = 100
  • Euro
  • Sterling
  • Yen
  • Renminbi
,Euro,Sterling,Yen,Renminbi 2006 Q1,103.5,103.7,106.0,98.2 2006 Q2,99.0,99.6,103.8,97.8 2006 Q3,97.6,97.0,105.4,97.2 2006 Q4,96.4,94.9,106.8,96.0 2007 Q1,94.9,93.0,108.4,94.7 2007 Q2,92.3,91.5,109.5,93.7 2007 Q3,90.5,90.0,106.9,92.3 2007 Q4,85.8,88.9,102.6,90.7 2008 Q1,83.0,91.9,95.5,87.4 2008 Q2,79.6,92.3,94.8,84.9 2008 Q3,82.8,95.3,97.6,83.5 2008 Q4,94.2,116.1,87.2,83.4 2009 Q1,95.5,127.1,85.0,83.4 2009 Q2,91.4,117.6,88.3,83.3 2009 Q3,87.0,110.8,84.9,83.4 2009 Q4,84.2,111.3,81.4,83.3 2010 Q1,89.9,116.6,82.2,83.3 2010 Q2,97.9,122.4,83.5,83.3 2010 Q3,96.2,117.3,77.8,82.6 2010 Q4,91.6,115.1,74.9,81.3 2011 Q1,91.0,113.5,74.6,80.4 2011 Q2,86.4,111.5,74.0,79.4 2011 Q3,88.1,113.0,70.5,78.3 2011 Q4,92.3,115.7,70.2,77.4 2012 Q1,94.8,115.7,72.0,77.0 2012 Q2,97.0,115.0,72.7,77.0 2012 Q3,99.4,115.1,71.3,77.3 2012 Q4,95.8,113.2,73.7,76.9 2013 Q1,94.3,117.3,83.7,76.6 2013 Q2,95.2,118.4,89.6,75.7 2013 Q3,93.9,117.2,89.8,75.3 2013 Q4,91.4,112.3,91.1,74.8 2014 Q1,90.8,109.8,93.3,74.7 2014 Q2,90.7,108.0,92.7,75.2 2014 Q3,93.9,109.0,94.3,75.2 2014 Q4,99.6,114.9,103.9,74.9 2015 Q1,110.5,120.0,108.1,74.9 2015 Q2,112.5,118.7,110.1,74.7 2015 Q3,111.9,117.4,110.9,76.4 2015 Q4,113.7,119.9,110.1,78.0 2016 Q1,112.9,127.1,104.7,79.8 2016 Q2,110.1,126.8,98.0,79.7 2016 Q3,111.5,138.5,92.9,81.4 2016 Q4,115.4,146.5,99.2,83.4 2017 Q1,116.7,146.7,103.2,84.1 2017 Q2,113.1,142.1,100.8,83.8 2017 Q3,105.9,138.9,100.7,81.4 2017 Q4,105.6,137.0,102.5,80.7 2018 Q1,101.2,130.7,98.3,77.5 2018 Q2,104.4,133.7,99.0,77.9 2018 Q3,106.9,139.5,101.1,83.1 2018 Q4,109.0,141.4,102.3,84.5 2019 Q1,109.5,139.6,100.0,82.3 2019 Q2,110.7,141.5,99.7,83.3 2019 Q3,111.9,147.5,97.4,85.7 2019 Q4,112.3,141.3,98.6,85.9 2020 Q1,112.9,142.2,98.9,85.2
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Key currencies continued their relatively stable performance of recent quarters in Q1 of 2020 but the US Dollar has generally strengthened sequentially in this quarter

Significant trends in recent years have seen the Chinese Renminbi and British Sterling weakening vs the US Dollar while the Japanese Yen has risen since 2015



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