Global Industrial Growth

% change YoY
  • OECD
  • Global
,OECD,Global 2007 Q1,3.7%,6.0% 2007 Q2,3.3%,5.9% 2007 Q3,3.6%,6.1% 2007 Q4,3.2%,5.7% 2008 Q1,2.7%,4.6% 2008 Q2,0.8%,2.9% 2008 Q3,-2.5%,0.5% 2008 Q4,-8.8%,-5.1% 2009 Q1,-16.6%,-11.2% 2009 Q2,-15.8%,-10.4% 2009 Q3,-11.5%,-6.9% 2009 Q4,-3.6%,-0.3% 2010 Q1,7.1%,8.7% 2010 Q2,9.7%,10.3% 2010 Q3,8.2%,8.7% 2010 Q4,6.7%,8.0% 2011 Q1,4.9%,6.6% 2011 Q2,2.3%,4.6% 2011 Q3,2.7%,4.8% 2011 Q4,2.1%,4.0% 2012 Q1,1.8%,3.5% 2012 Q2,2.1%,3.3% 2012 Q3,0.1%,1.9% 2012 Q4,-0.9%,1.3% 2013 Q1,-0.8%,1.5% 2013 Q2,0.0%,2.0% 2013 Q3,1.1%,2.6% 2013 Q4,2.5%,3.8% 2014 Q1,3.1%,3.9% 2014 Q2,2.5%,3.3% 2014 Q3,2.0%,2.9% 2014 Q4,1.6%,2.5% 2015 Q1,0.9%,1.6% 2015 Q2,0.5%,1.2% 2015 Q3,0.8%,1.2% 2015 Q4,0.0%,0.5% 2016 Q1,0.1%,0.7% 2016 Q2,0.0%,0.9% 2016 Q3,-0.1%,0.9% 2016 Q4,1.4%,2.3% 2017 Q1,1.7%,2.8% 2017 Q2,3.0%,3.8% 2017 Q3,3.5%,4.0% 2017 Q4,3.8%,4.1% 2018 Q1,3.1%,3.8% 2018 Q2,2.8%,3.4% 2018 Q3,2.3%,3.0% 2018 Q4,0.9%,2.0% 2019 Q1,0.6%,1.7% 2019 Q2,-0.2%,1.1% 2019 Q3,-0.5%,0.5% 2019 Q4,-1.1%,0.3% 2020 Q1,-2.4%,-3.6% 2020 Q2,-16.0%,-13.0% 2020 Q3,-5.5%,-3.3%
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Global output recovered significantly in Q3 but remains below previous peak levels due to the impact of Covid

The rate of decline in Q2, both globally and for the OECD covering leading developed economies,  was at least as great as that in the 2008/9 economic crisis when output was down by double digits rates – the bounce-back in Q3 also matched the V shape curve seen in the last crisis with output down -3½% globally and -5½% for the OECD



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OECD Industrial Production Trends

Index 2015=100
  • USA
  • Europe
  • Japan
,USA,Europe,Japan 2006 Q1,97.1,95.6,95.6 2006 Q2,97.7,97.2,97.2 2006 Q3,98.1,97.9,97.9 2006 Q4,98.3,99.2,99.2 2007 Q1,99.2,100.8,100.8 2007 Q2,100.4,101.2,101.2 2007 Q3,100.7,102.2,102.2 2007 Q4,101.0,102.9,102.9 2008 Q1,100.6,103.9,103.9 2008 Q2,99.1,102.7,102.7 2008 Q3,95.9,100.4,100.4 2008 Q4,91.8,94.2,94.2 2009 Q1,86.6,86.4,86.4 2009 Q2,84.1,85.8,85.8 2009 Q3,85.4,87.7,87.7 2009 Q4,86.7,89.1,89.1 2010 Q1,88.4,90.6,90.6 2010 Q2,90.2,93.1,93.1 2010 Q3,91.4,94.1,94.1 2010 Q4,91.7,96.1,96.1 2011 Q1,92.2,97.3,97.3 2011 Q2,92.6,97.1,97.1 2011 Q3,93.6,97.7,97.7 2011 Q4,94.6,97.4,97.4 2012 Q1,95.5,96.6,96.6 2012 Q2,96.1,96.3,96.3 2012 Q3,96.1,96.4,96.4 2012 Q4,96.6,94.9,94.9 2013 Q1,97.3,94.9,94.9 2013 Q2,97.8,95.9,95.9 2013 Q3,98.1,96.5,96.5 2013 Q4,98.8,97.2,97.2 2014 Q1,99.5,97.6,97.6 2014 Q2,100.9,97.6,97.6 2014 Q3,101.5,97.8,97.8 2014 Q4,102.1,98.2,98.2 2015 Q1,101.4,99.1,99.1 2015 Q2,100.0,99.9,99.9 2015 Q3,100.0,100.5,100.5 2015 Q4,98.7,100.5,100.5 2016 Q1,98.2,101.3,101.3 2016 Q2,97.6,101.3,101.3 2016 Q3,98.0,101.2,101.2 2016 Q4,98.4,102.9,102.9 2017 Q1,98.9,103.6,103.6 2017 Q2,100.3,104.7,104.7 2017 Q3,100.1,106.5,106.5 2017 Q4,101.9,108.3,108.3 2018 Q1,102.5,107.5,107.5 2018 Q2,103.7,107.7,107.7 2018 Q3,105.0,107.5,107.5 2018 Q4,106.0,106.8,106.8 2019 Q1,105.5,107.5,107.5 2019 Q2,104.9,107.2,107.2 2019 Q3,105.1,106.8,106.8 2019 Q4,105.2,106.2,106.2 2020 Q1,103.4,103.7,103.7 2020 Q2,89.9,86.9,86.9 2020 Q3,98.1,102.5,102.5
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OECD Q3 sequential bounce back reflected in all three major regions (US, Europe and Japan)

Europe indicated Q3 output up over +15% vs Q2 while both US and Japan up by +8-9%

Despite this significant recovery all three are still significantly down on historic peaks – Europe down -5% vs late 2017 peak, US by -7% vs late 2018 and Japan -25% vs 2007/8 high point



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Developed Economies Industrial Growth

% change YoY
  • USA
  • Europe
  • Japan
,USA,Europe,Japan 2011 Q1,4.2%,7.4%,-1.9% 2011 Q2,2.6%,4.3%,-6.8% 2011 Q3,2.5%,3.9%,-2.0% 2011 Q4,3.2%,1.3%,-0.4% 2012 Q1,3.6%,-0.7%,4.2% 2012 Q2,3.8%,-0.8%,6.3% 2012 Q3,2.6%,-1.3%,-3.4% 2012 Q4,2.1%,-2.6%,-6.0% 2013 Q1,2.0%,-1.8%,-6.7% 2013 Q2,1.8%,-0.5%,-2.7% 2013 Q3,2.1%,0.0%,2.3% 2013 Q4,2.3%,2.4%,5.2% 2014 Q1,2.3%,2.9%,7.1% 2014 Q2,3.2%,1.8%,2.0% 2014 Q3,3.4%,1.4%,-0.4% 2014 Q4,3.4%,1.0%,-1.3% 2015 Q1,1.8%,1.5%,-2.9% 2015 Q2,-0.9%,2.4%,-0.8% 2015 Q3,-1.5%,2.8%,-0.3% 2015 Q4,-3.4%,2.4%,-0.9% 2016 Q1,-3.2%,2.2%,-0.7% 2016 Q2,-2.4%,1.4%,-0.9% 2016 Q3,-1.9%,0.7%,0.5% 2016 Q4,-0.3%,2.4%,2.0% 2017 Q1,0.8%,2.3%,1.3% 2017 Q2,2.8%,3.4%,4.0% 2017 Q3,2.1%,5.2%,2.5% 2017 Q4,3.6%,5.3%,2.6% 2018 Q1,3.6%,3.8%,2.1% 2018 Q2,3.3%,2.9%,1.1% 2018 Q3,4.9%,0.9%,0.6% 2018 Q4,4.0%,-1.3%,0.4% 2019 Q1,2.9%,0.0%,-0.7% 2019 Q2,1.2%,-0.5%,-1.4% 2019 Q3,0.2%,-0.7%,-1.9% 2019 Q4,-0.7%,-0.6%,-6.4% 2020 Q1,-1.9%,-3.6%,-4.2% 2020 Q2,-14.2%,-18.9%,-19.4% 2020 Q3,-6.7%,-4.0%,-11.8%
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Q3 saw Japan with continued sharp decline YoY at -12% while US was -6 ½ % and Europe improved to -4%

This is fourth successive quarter when all three geographies have been negative – reflecting the slowdown which was already in place even before the Covid pandemic hit



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Developing Economies Industrial Growth

% change YoY
  • Brazil
  • India
  • Russia
  • China
,Brazil,India,Russia,China 2011 Q1,2.5%,5.3%,5.3%,14.8% 2011 Q2,0.5%,6.1%,6.1%,13.9% 2011 Q3,0.2%,5.3%,5.3%,13.8% 2011 Q4,-1.5%,3.6%,3.6%,13.1% 2012 Q1,-5.3%,4.0%,4.0%,12.1% 2012 Q2,-4.4%,2.7%,2.7%,10.3% 2012 Q3,-0.5%,3.5%,3.5%,9.2% 2012 Q4,0.8%,2.0%,2.0%,9.6% 2013 Q1,2.6%,1.7%,1.7%,10.1% 2013 Q2,4.1%,2.7%,2.7%,9.1% 2013 Q3,1.7%,0.5%,0.5%,9.7% 2013 Q4,0.2%,2.6%,2.6%,10.1% 2014 Q1,0.0%,1.9%,1.9%,8.7% 2014 Q2,-4.4%,2.0%,2.0%,8.8% 2014 Q3,-3.9%,3.0%,3.0%,8.0% 2014 Q4,-3.5%,2.5%,2.5%,7.6% 2015 Q1,-5.4%,0.7%,0.7%,6.4% 2015 Q2,-6.3%,-1.0%,-1.0%,6.3% 2015 Q3,-9.7%,-0.7%,-0.7%,5.9% 2015 Q4,-11.8%,-1.5%,-1.5%,5.9% 2016 Q1,-10.5%,-0.2%,-0.2%,5.9% 2016 Q2,-7.4%,0.6%,0.6%,6.1% 2016 Q3,-5.5%,1.6%,1.6%,6.1% 2016 Q4,-2.4%,4.1%,4.1%,6.1% 2017 Q1,1.2%,4.7%,4.7%,6.7% 2017 Q2,1.1%,5.6%,5.6%,6.8% 2017 Q3,3.2%,4.6%,4.6%,6.3% 2017 Q4,5.9%,1.2%,1.2%,6.2% 2018 Q1,3.0%,3.1%,3.1%,6.8% 2018 Q2,0.5%,3.1%,3.1%,6.6% 2018 Q3,1.4%,2.6%,2.6%,6.0% 2018 Q4,-1.8%,5.0%,5.0%,6.0% 2019 Q1,-2.1%,1.5%,3.2%,6.4% 2019 Q2,0.3%,3.0%,3.3%,5.6% 2019 Q3,-2.1%,-0.4%,3.9%,5.0% 2019 Q4,-0.5%,-0.8%,2.7%,5.9% 2020 Q1,-2.5%,-3.4%,1.9%,-9.4% 2020 Q2,-19.3%,-36.0%,-6.4%,4.4% 2020 Q3,-0.7%,-6.0%,-5.1%,5.8%
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China output continued its bounce-back in Q3 with reported growth returning towards +6% - close to its trend of recent years although significantly below the average for the 2000’s decade

Brazil, Russia and India all showed lower rates of decline but were still in negative territory YoY in Q3 – with Brazil indicating a decline of around -1% and India and Russia both down by -5-6%



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Global Inflation (CPI)

% change YoY
  • Global
  • OECD
,Global,OECD 2011 Q1,3.4,2.3 2011 Q2,4.0,2.9 2011 Q3,4.2,3.1 2011 Q4,3.7,3.0 2012 Q1,3.2,2.7 2012 Q2,2.7,2.2 2012 Q3,2.5,2.0 2012 Q4,2.6,2.0 2013 Q1,2.5,1.7 2013 Q2,2.4,1.5 2013 Q3,2.5,1.7 2013 Q4,2.4,1.5 2014 Q1,2.2,1.6 2014 Q2,2.6,2.1 2014 Q3,2.4,1.9 2014 Q4,2.1,1.5 2015 Q1,1.8,0.6 2015 Q2,1.9,0.6 2015 Q3,1.9,0.6 2015 Q4,2.0,0.8 2016 Q1,2.1,1.1 2016 Q2,1.9,1.0 2016 Q3,1.9,1.1 2016 Q4,2.1,1.6 2017 Q1,2.4,2.4 2017 Q2,2.1,2.2 2017 Q3,2.2,2.2 2017 Q4,2.3,2.3 2018 Q1,2.3,2.2 2018 Q2,2.5,2.6 2018 Q3,2.9,2.9 2018 Q4,2.8,2.7 2019 Q1,2.4,2.2 2019 Q2,2.7,2.3 2019 Q3,2.4,1.9 2019 Q4,2.7,1.9 2020 Q1,2.9,2.1 2020 Q2,1.5,0.9 2020 Q3,1.7,1.3
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Global inflation as represented by changes in Consumer Price Index appears to have accelerated marginally in Q3 to over 1½%, still close to its lowest level in recent years

Most regional and national geographies have reflected this reduction in inflation rates

While the trend of recent quarters appears to be driven by the direct impact of Covid-driven recession on global markets (eg energy process) and weakness in in demand, the upturn in Q3 appears to be typical of across many countries and may be linked to the trough having possibly passed



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Global Energy Prices

Index 2010=100
  • Natural Gas
  • Coal
  • Crude Oil
,Natural Gas,Coal,Crude Oil 2008 Q1,163.8,115.3,120.6 2008 Q2,204.7,140.2,153.0 2008 Q3,188.2,164.6,146.4 2008 Q4,162.5,94.0,70.9 2009 Q1,119.7,72.7,55.8 2009 Q2,89.0,67.2,74.9 2009 Q3,76.6,67.2,74.9 2009 Q4,96.4,78.5,95.5 2010 Q1,111.5,96.2,97.5 2010 Q2,95.6,100.6,98.9 2010 Q3,98.8,94.4,95.5 2010 Q4,94.1,108.8,108.1 2011 Q1,103.8,130.4,126.2 2011 Q2,111.3,121.3,139.2 2011 Q3,112.9,122.6,130.4 2011 Q4,105.9,116.2,130.5 2012 Q1,95.6,115.0,142.3 2012 Q2,94.0,96.6,130.1 2012 Q3,99.7,90.4,130.1 2012 Q4,107.4,87.8,128.9 2013 Q1,109.6,93.9,133.0 2013 Q2,118.6,87.0,125.6 2013 Q3,108.4,78.2,135.9 2013 Q4,111.7,82.9,132.2 2014 Q1,127.8,77.9,131.2 2014 Q2,115.5,73.5,134.5 2014 Q3,102.0,68.6,127.0 2014 Q4,101.6,63.6,94.4 2015 Q1,85.6,61.9,65.3 2015 Q2,74.6,59.7,76.5 2015 Q3,72.7,58.1,61.7 2015 Q4,61.8,52.9,53.4 2016 Q1,52.6,51.5,41.4 2016 Q2,49.8,52.5,56.7 2016 Q3,60.3,68.2,56.6 2016 Q4,65.0,94.2,62.1 2017 Q1,68.9,82.5,66.9 2017 Q2,68.4,80.9,62.5 2017 Q3,66.9,94.4,63.5 2017 Q4,70.2,99.7,74.3 2018 Q1,74.5,103.9,81.7 2018 Q2,76.3,105.9,90.3 2018 Q3,82.8,118.3,92.4 2018 Q4,94.1,104.7,81.4 2019 Q1,72.5,96.8,76.5 2019 Q2,58.3,81.4,82.4 2019 Q3,54.3,68.6,75.5 2019 Q4,59.5,68.2,76.3 2020 Q1,44.7,68.7,62.1 2020 Q2,35.8,55.0,38.3 2020 Q3,42.3,53.4,52.9
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Key global energy price indicators were mixed in Q3 with oil and gas prices edging higher from their lowest level in over 10 years while coal prices were edging down further towards their 2016 low

Global oil prices were down over -30% YoY in Q3 with natural gas and coal both down around -22%

European natural gas prices appear to have again fallen more YoY than US prices in Q3 while Japanese LNG prices have fallen sharply in recent months



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Exchange Rates vs US Dollar

Index 2005=100
  • Euro
  • Sterling
  • Yen
  • Renminbi
,Euro,Sterling,Yen,Renminbi 2006 Q1,103.5,103.7,106.0,98.2 2006 Q2,99.0,99.6,103.8,97.8 2006 Q3,97.6,97.0,105.4,97.2 2006 Q4,96.4,94.9,106.8,96.0 2007 Q1,94.9,93.0,108.4,94.7 2007 Q2,92.3,91.5,109.5,93.7 2007 Q3,90.5,90.0,106.9,92.3 2007 Q4,85.8,88.9,102.6,90.7 2008 Q1,83.0,91.9,95.5,87.4 2008 Q2,79.6,92.3,94.8,84.9 2008 Q3,82.8,95.3,97.6,83.5 2008 Q4,94.2,116.1,87.2,83.4 2009 Q1,95.5,127.1,85.0,83.4 2009 Q2,91.4,117.6,88.3,83.3 2009 Q3,87.0,110.8,84.9,83.4 2009 Q4,84.2,111.3,81.4,83.3 2010 Q1,89.9,116.6,82.2,83.3 2010 Q2,97.9,122.4,83.5,83.3 2010 Q3,96.2,117.3,77.8,82.6 2010 Q4,91.6,115.1,74.9,81.3 2011 Q1,91.0,113.5,74.6,80.4 2011 Q2,86.4,111.5,74.0,79.4 2011 Q3,88.1,113.0,70.5,78.3 2011 Q4,92.3,115.7,70.2,77.4 2012 Q1,94.8,115.7,72.0,77.0 2012 Q2,97.0,115.0,72.7,77.0 2012 Q3,99.4,115.1,71.3,77.3 2012 Q4,95.8,113.2,73.7,76.9 2013 Q1,94.3,117.3,83.7,76.6 2013 Q2,95.2,118.4,89.6,75.7 2013 Q3,93.9,117.2,89.8,75.3 2013 Q4,91.4,112.3,91.1,74.8 2014 Q1,90.8,109.8,93.3,74.7 2014 Q2,90.7,108.0,92.7,75.2 2014 Q3,93.9,109.0,94.3,75.2 2014 Q4,99.6,114.9,103.9,74.9 2015 Q1,110.5,120.0,108.1,74.9 2015 Q2,112.5,118.7,110.1,74.7 2015 Q3,111.9,117.4,110.9,76.4 2015 Q4,113.7,119.9,110.1,78.0 2016 Q1,112.9,127.1,104.7,79.8 2016 Q2,110.1,126.8,98.0,79.7 2016 Q3,111.5,138.5,92.9,81.4 2016 Q4,115.4,146.5,99.2,83.4 2017 Q1,116.7,146.7,103.2,84.1 2017 Q2,113.1,142.1,100.8,83.8 2017 Q3,105.9,138.9,100.7,81.4 2017 Q4,105.6,137.0,102.5,80.7 2018 Q1,101.2,130.7,98.3,77.5 2018 Q2,104.4,133.7,99.0,77.9 2018 Q3,106.9,139.5,101.1,83.1 2018 Q4,109.0,141.4,102.3,84.5 2019 Q1,109.5,139.6,100.0,82.3 2019 Q2,110.7,141.5,99.7,83.3 2019 Q3,111.9,147.5,97.4,85.7 2019 Q4,112.3,141.3,98.6,85.9 2020 Q1,112.9,142.2,98.9,85.2 2020 Q2,113.0,146.5,97.6,86.5 2020 Q3,106.4,140.7,96.3,84.4
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Currency markets saw widespread weakening of the US Dollar in Q3 with the rise vs Euro the most significant although not reversing the long term upward trend of recent years

A number of currencies in developing economies, particularly L.America have continued to weaken significantly sequentially and YoY in Q3 against the Dollar



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