Country Dashboard: North Africa



The commercial industrial gases market in North Africa was estimated to have generated revenues of some $381.8m in 2019. This was an increase from revenues in 2009 of $267.8m, indicating an average annual growth rate of 3.7% p.a. for the decade.

The Economy 

In this report we consider 5 countries across North Africa: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. Over the past decade the rate of GDP has experienced an average annual growth rate of 3.6% p.a. The growth of GDP has largely been positive over the past decade, however, rates have been negative between 2013-15. The GDP growth rate in 2019 was 6.4%. Industrial production (as measured by IPI) in North Africa has been weak over the course of the last decade. Since a period of stagnant growth in 2013 with 0.0%, industrial production has been experiencing positive growth, with an IPI growth rate of 4.5% in 2019. GDP Inflation rates have remained consistent over the past 18 years with a inflation rate of 8.4% in 2019.

The Gas Business 


Of the major international industrial gas companies, both Air Liquide and Linde are present in North Africa, accounting between them for more than 50% of total revenues (Air Liquide’s business being more than twice as big as that of Linde). 

Messer has a small presence in Algeria also, but that company’s expansion plans in this region are non-existent currently. Its presence is largely a legacy of the pre-2004 structure of Messer’s global business: when the Messer family in Germany bought back the stake in Messer Griesheim previously held by Goldman Sachs and Allianz Capital Partners they financed the re-purchase of these shares by selling off large parts of the old business structure – and Messer Algérie was clearly never of much interest to any of the other major industrial gas companies. 

Beyond these companies there are a number of important domestic players in many of the countries under review, including Maghreb Oxygène in Morocco, COGIZ in Algeria, Elhuria in Libya and Auf Factories in Egypt. The markets in Libya and Egypt are especially fragmented with many small, low volume producers of gas serving to depress cylinder gas prices and complicating efforts to maintain consistent safety and quality standards. 

The Future 


Our macro-economic forecast for the industrial gases business is based on the increase in gas demand by end user sector (using industrial productivity metrics supplied to us by Global Insight Inc.). The gasworld analysis is based on historical consumption and industrial gas intensity trends. The latter also takes account of any market intelligence relating to new capacity and/or specific industrial projects uncovered during the course of our market research across the entire region.

Within the 2019-2024 timeframe, our forecast models predict growth of roughly 4.3% in a low scenario and 6.1% p.a. in a high scenario. Accordingly, the industry in North Africa is expected to achieve revenues of between $464m to $516m by 2024.



GDP, IPI and Inflation

  • GDP Nominal (%)
  • IPI (%)
  • GDP Deflator (%)
,GDP Nominal (%),IPI (%),GDP Deflator (%) 2000,9.0%,4.4%,4.9% 2001,-2.1%,4.2%,2.1% 2002,-7.8%,2.1%,2.0% 2003,11.1%,1.9%,2.9% 2004,12.9%,6.1%,4.4% 2005,16.2%,1.9%,3.5% 2006,14.3%,4.7%,3.9% 2007,18.0%,7.1%,5.5% 2008,23.0%,2.9%,7.3% 2009,-6.2%,-1.2%,4.4% 2010,14.0%,5.6%,4.8% 2011,5.2%,0.1%,5.1% 2012,13.8%,2.0%,8.6% 2013,-0.9%,0.0%,5.0% 2014,-0.5%,1.6%,6.0% 2015,-5.6%,0.8%,5.8% 2016,0.2%,1.9%,4.7% 2017,7.6%,2.1%,12.0% 2018,6.2%,2.7%,9.4% 2019,6.4%,4.5%,8.4%
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In this report we consider 5 countries across North Africa: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt.

Over the past decade the rate of GDP has experienced an average annual growth rate of 3.6% p.a. The growth of GDP has largely been positive over the past decade, however, rates have been negative between 2013-15. The GDP growth rate in 2019 was 6.4%.

Industrial production (as measured by IPI) in North Africa has been weak over the course of the last decade. Since a period of stagnant growth in 2013 with 0.0%, industrial production has been experiencing positive growth, with an IPI growth rate of 4.5% in 2019.

GDP Inflation rates have remained consistent over the past 18 years with a inflation rate of 8.4% in 2019.


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Commercial Gas Market

  • GDP Nominal (%)
  • IPI (%)
  • Gas Market (%)
,GDP Nominal (%),IPI (%),Gas Market (%) 2000,9.0%,4.4%,10.0% 2001,-2.1%,4.2%,7.9% 2002,-7.8%,2.1%,5.1% 2003,11.1%,1.9%,0.1% 2004,12.9%,6.1%,6.9% 2005,16.2%,1.9%,3.9% 2006,14.3%,4.7%,7.0% 2007,18.0%,7.1%,2.5% 2008,23.0%,2.9%,6.2% 2009,-6.2%,-1.2%,7.6% 2010,14.0%,5.6%,1.9% 2011,5.2%,0.1%,6.3% 2012,13.8%,2.0%,3.7% 2013,-0.9%,0.0%,-0.3% 2014,-0.5%,1.6%,9.7% 2015,-5.6%,0.8%,0.0% 2016,0.2%,1.9%,-0.4% 2017,7.6%,2.1%,4.1% 2018,6.2%,2.7%,5.4% 2019,6.4%,4.5%,6.2%
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The commercial industrial gases market in North Africa was estimated to have generated revenues of some $381.8m in 2019. This was an increase from revenues in 2009 of $267.8m, indicating an average annual growth rate of 3.7% p.a. for the decade.  

The industrial gas market was unaffected during the aftermath of the financial crisis, with a growth of 1.9% in 2010. The market recovered with a positive growth rate of 6.2% in 2019.


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Market Share by Gas Company

based on a market total of $381.8m

Legend:
  • Air Liquide
  • Linde
  • Maghreb Oxygène
  • Messer
  • SLA
  • Auf Factories
  • Gulf Cryo
  • COGIZ
  • Tusharukiat Elhuria
  • EIAG
  • Oxair
  • Others
Air Liquide,145.2 Linde,53.0 Maghreb Oxygène,26.8 Messer,12.1 SLA,10.3 Auf Factories,10.4 Gulf Cryo,9.4 COGIZ,7.9 Tusharukiat Elhuria,6.5 EIAG,6.8 Oxair,7.4 Others,86.0
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Of the major international industrial gas companies, both Air Liquide and Linde are present in North Africa, accounting between them for more than 50% of total revenues (Air Liquide’s business being more than twice as big as that of Linde).

Messer has a small presence in Algeria also, but that company’s expansion plans in this region are non-existent currently. Its presence is largely a legacy of the pre-2004 structure of Messer’s global business: when the Messer family in Germany bought back the stake in Messer Griesheim previously held by Goldman Sachs and Allianz Capital Partners they financed the re-purchase of these shares by selling off large parts of the old business structure – and Messer Algérie was clearly never of much interest to any of the other major industrial gas companies.

Beyond these companies there are a number of important domestic players in many of the countries under review, including Maghreb Oxygène in Morocco, COGIZ in Algeria, Elhuria in Libya and Auf Factories in Egypt. The markets in Libya and Egypt are especially fragmented with many small, low volume producers of gas serving to depress cylinder gas prices and complicating efforts to maintain consistent safety and quality standards. 


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Market Share by Supply Mode

based on a market total of $381.8m + $671m Captive

Legend:
  • OSP
  • Bulk
  • Packaged
  • Other
  • Captive
OSP,59.2 Bulk,82.8 Packaged,220.3 Other,19.5 Captive,670.6
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The most important supply mode in North Africa is the delivery of gas through packaged methods. Bulk liquid sales were equal to $82.8m, with onsite projects accounting for $59.2m.

We have also estimated that were captive plants converted to onsite facilities it could generate a further $670.6m in revenue for the gas market in the region.


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Commercial Gases Value

Legend:
  • Indusrial Oxygen
  • Med Oxygen
  • Nitrogen
  • Argon
  • Carbon Dioxide
  • Hydrogen
  • Helium
  • Other
Indusrial Oxygen,72.5 Med Oxygen,18.6 Nitrogen,40.8 Argon,48.0 Carbon Dioxide,47.6 Hydrogen,43.2 Helium,5.8 Other,105.3
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Oxygen was the most important gas in the region, accounting for roughly 24% commercial revenue in North Africa industrial gas market. Argon followed oxygen as the second highest revenue generating industrial gas and commanded a 12.6% share of the industrial gas market in North Africa. Both carbon dioxide and Hydrogen were responsible for approximately 12.5% and 11.3% of the industrial gas revenues, respectively, with nitrogen also accounting for 10.7% of commercial revenue.


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Market Share by End-User

Legend:
  • Chemicals
  • Refining & Energy
  • Metallurgy
  • Gen Manufacturing
  • Food
  • Electronics
  • Healthcare
  • Glass
  • Others
Chemicals,21.8 Refining & Energy,33.8 Metallurgy,98.1 Gen Manufacturing,123.1 Food,34.5 Electronics,9.1 Healthcare,25.7 Glass,7.7 Others,28.0
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By end-use sector, manufacturing industries accounted for the greatest proportion of industrial gas revenues, generating approximately 32% of total sales. This was primarily linked to gases such as oxygen, acetylene, argon and other gases used for cutting and welding operations.

The metallurgical industry also accounted for a large proportion of sales: approximately 26% of total sales. Other important end-users included the food and beverage clients (9.0%), refining and chemcial industries (8.9% and 5.7% respectively), and healthcare providers (6.7%).


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Gas Market Growth and Forecast

  • Macro Economic Forecast
  • Gas Intensity Forecast
,Macro Economic Forecast,Gas Intensity Forecast 2000,169.5,169.5 2001,183.0,183.0 2002,192.3,192.3 2003,192.6,192.6 2004,205.9,205.9 2005,213.9,213.9 2006,228.8,228.8 2007,234.6,234.6 2008,249.0,249.0 2009,267.8,267.8 2010,272.8,272.8 2011,290.1,290.1 2012,300.8,300.8 2013,299.8,299.8 2014,328.9,328.9 2015,329.0,329.0 2016,327.6,327.6 2017,341.1,341.1 2018,359.6,359.6 2019,381.8,381.8 2020,362.6,370.0 2021,382.0,398.0 2022,415.7,442.4 2023,443.3,482.4 2024,463.6,516.2
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Our macro-economic forecast for the industrial gases business is based on the increase in gas demand by end user sector (using industrial productivity metrics supplied to us by Global Insight Inc.). The gasworld analysis is based on historical consumption and industrial gas intensity trends. The latter also takes account of any market intelligence relating to new capacity and/or specific industrial projects uncovered during the course of our market research across the entire region.

Within the 2019-2024 timeframe, our forecast models predict growth of roughly 4.3% in a low scenario and 6.1% p.a. in a high scenario. Accordingly, the industry in North Africa is expected to achieve revenues of between $464m to $516m by 2024.


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Gas Production Facilities

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