OECD Industrial Production Trends

Index 2015=100
  • United States
  • Europe
  • Japan
,United States,Europe,Japan 2006 Q1,97.1,95.6,111.1 2006 Q2,97.7,97.2,112.9 2006 Q3,98.1,97.9,114.0 2006 Q4,98.3,99.2,115.2 2007 Q1,99.2,100.8,114.9 2007 Q2,100.4,101.2,115.6 2007 Q3,100.7,102.2,117.6 2007 Q4,101.0,102.9,118.3 2008 Q1,100.6,103.9,119.0 2008 Q2,99.1,102.7,117.1 2008 Q3,95.9,100.4,112.8 2008 Q4,91.8,94.2,102.4 2009 Q1,86.6,86.4,82.3 2009 Q2,84.1,85.8,86.4 2009 Q3,85.4,87.7,91.2 2009 Q4,86.7,89.1,97.6 2010 Q1,88.4,90.5,101.4 2010 Q2,90.2,93.0,102.5 2010 Q3,91.4,94.0,103.9 2010 Q4,91.7,96.1,103.3 2011 Q1,92.2,97.2,99.5 2011 Q2,92.6,97.0,95.5 2011 Q3,93.6,97.6,101.8 2011 Q4,94.6,97.4,102.9 2012 Q1,95.5,96.5,103.7 2012 Q2,96.1,96.3,101.5 2012 Q3,96.1,96.4,98.3 2012 Q4,96.6,94.8,96.8 2013 Q1,97.3,94.8,96.8 2013 Q2,97.8,95.8,98.8 2013 Q3,98.1,96.4,100.6 2013 Q4,98.8,97.1,101.8 2014 Q1,99.5,97.5,103.6 2014 Q2,100.9,97.5,100.8 2014 Q3,101.5,97.7,100.2 2014 Q4,102.1,98.1,100.5 2015 Q1,101.4,99.1,100.6 2015 Q2,100.0,99.9,100.0 2015 Q3,100.0,100.5,99.9 2015 Q4,98.7,100.5,99.6 2016 Q1,98.2,101.4,99.9 2016 Q2,97.6,101.3,99.0 2016 Q3,98.0,101.2,100.4 2016 Q4,98.4,102.9,101.6 2017 Q1,98.9,103.6,101.2 2017 Q2,100.3,104.7,103.0 2017 Q3,100.1,106.6,103.0 2017 Q4,101.9,108.3,104.2 2018 Q1,102.5,107.5,103.3 2018 Q2,103.7,107.7,104.2 2018 Q3,105.0,107.5,103.6 2018 Q4,106.0,106.9,104.6 2019 Q1,105.5,107.5,102.6 2019 Q2,104.9,107.2,102.7 2019 Q3,105.1,106.7,101.6 2019 Q4,105.2,106.3,97.9 2020 Q1,103.4,103.6,98.3 2020 Q2,90.0,84.0,82.9
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Global output fell sharply in Q2 due to the impact of Covid – with a decline at least as great as that in the 2008/9 economic crisis

OECD output (including most developed economies) again slipped sharply in Q2 after falling steadily from its 2018 peak  for the previous 5 quarters

Driven by weakness in across all three major geographies (USA, Europe and Japan) – returns output level close to that of early 2009

USA flat output through 2019 but weakened further in Q2 to now be -15% below its peak

Europe output even weaker to be down from its historic peak by     -22%

Japan output in Q2 was -30% below its peak, which was achieved prior to the 2008/9 economic crisis



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Developed Economies Industrial Growth

% change YoY
  • USA
  • Europe
  • Japan
,USA,Europe,Japan 2011 Q1,4.2%,7.4%,-1.9% 2011 Q2,2.6%,4.3%,-6.8% 2011 Q3,2.5%,3.9%,-2.0% 2011 Q4,3.2%,1.3%,-0.4% 2012 Q1,3.6%,-0.7%,4.2% 2012 Q2,3.8%,-0.8%,6.3% 2012 Q3,2.6%,-1.3%,-3.4% 2012 Q4,2.1%,-2.6%,-6.0% 2013 Q1,2.0%,-1.8%,-6.7% 2013 Q2,1.8%,-0.5%,-2.7% 2013 Q3,2.1%,0.0%,2.3% 2013 Q4,2.3%,2.4%,5.2% 2014 Q1,2.3%,2.9%,7.1% 2014 Q2,3.2%,1.8%,2.0% 2014 Q3,3.4%,1.4%,-0.4% 2014 Q4,3.4%,1.0%,-1.3% 2015 Q1,1.8%,1.6%,-2.9% 2015 Q2,-0.9%,2.4%,-0.8% 2015 Q3,-1.5%,2.8%,-0.3% 2015 Q4,-3.4%,2.4%,-0.9% 2016 Q1,-3.2%,2.3%,-0.7% 2016 Q2,-2.4%,1.4%,-0.9% 2016 Q3,-1.9%,0.7%,0.5% 2016 Q4,-0.3%,2.4%,2.0% 2017 Q1,0.8%,2.3%,1.3% 2017 Q2,2.8%,3.3%,4.0% 2017 Q3,2.1%,5.3%,2.5% 2017 Q4,3.6%,5.3%,2.6% 2018 Q1,3.6%,3.8%,2.1% 2018 Q2,3.3%,2.9%,1.1% 2018 Q3,4.9%,0.9%,0.6% 2018 Q4,4.0%,-1.3%,0.4% 2019 Q1,2.9%,0.0%,-0.7% 2019 Q2,1.2%,-0.5%,-1.4% 2019 Q3,0.2%,-0.7%,-1.9% 2019 Q4,-0.7%,-0.6%,-6.4% 2020 Q1,-1.9%,-3.6%,-4.2% 2020 Q2,-14.2%,-21.6%,-19.3%
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Q2 saw OECD output down -18% Y0Y – greater than any YoY decline seen in the 2008/9 crisis

All three major OECD regions were again sharply down YoY with US only down -14% while Japan and Europe were down over -19% and -21% respectively

This is third successive quarter when all three geographies have been negative – for the first time since 2008/9



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Developing Economies Industrial Growth

% change YoY
  • Brazil
  • India
  • Russia
  • China
,Brazil,India,Russia,China 2011 Q1,2.5%,7.8%,5.1%,14.8% 2011 Q2,0.5%,7.0%,6.2%,13.9% 2011 Q3,0.2%,3.1%,5.4%,13.8% 2011 Q4,-1.5%,1.4%,3.7%,13.1% 2012 Q1,-5.3%,-0.4%,3.6%,12.1% 2012 Q2,-4.5%,-0.8%,2.9%,10.3% 2012 Q3,-0.6%,-0.6%,3.7%,9.2% 2012 Q4,0.8%,-0.3%,2.5%,9.6% 2013 Q1,2.6%,-1.0%,0.8%,10.1% 2013 Q2,4.2%,1.0%,2.7%,9.1% 2013 Q3,1.7%,4.4%,0.2%,9.7% 2013 Q4,0.1%,3.1%,3.9%,10.1% 2014 Q1,0.0%,4.5%,7.3%,8.7% 2014 Q2,-4.4%,5.5%,5.8%,8.8% 2014 Q3,-3.9%,4.1%,6.5%,8.0% 2014 Q4,-3.5%,4.0%,3.7%,7.6% 2015 Q1,-5.4%,2.6%,13.7%,6.4% 2015 Q2,-6.3%,1.1%,11.6%,6.3% 2015 Q3,-9.7%,2.2%,12.5%,5.9% 2015 Q4,-11.7%,4.3%,11.8%,5.9% 2016 Q1,-10.5%,4.3%,0.0%,5.9% 2016 Q2,-7.4%,7.1%,0.6%,6.1% 2016 Q3,-5.4%,4.4%,1.6%,6.1% 2016 Q4,-2.4%,4.0%,4.1%,6.1% 2017 Q1,1.2%,4.2%,4.6%,6.7% 2017 Q2,1.1%,1.9%,5.6%,6.8% 2017 Q3,3.3%,3.5%,4.6%,6.3% 2017 Q4,5.9%,5.8%,1.1%,6.2% 2018 Q1,3.0%,6.6%,3.2%,6.8% 2018 Q2,0.5%,5.1%,3.0%,6.6% 2018 Q3,1.6%,5.3%,2.7%,6.0% 2018 Q4,-1.8%,3.6%,5.0%,6.0% 2019 Q1,-2.1%,1.5%,2.6%,6.4% 2019 Q2,0.3%,3.0%,2.1%,5.6% 2019 Q3,-2.0%,-0.4%,2.8%,5.0% 2019 Q4,-0.5%,-0.8%,1.7%,5.9% 2020 Q1,-1.7%,-3.4%,0.7%,-9.4% 2020 Q2,-19.4%,-36.0%,-8.5%,4.4%
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China reported output growth bounced back in Q2 after the significantly negative performance reported for the first time in many years in Q1 as Covid hit the economy- however at +4% YoY apparently continuing the slowing long term growth trend

Brazil, Russia and India all slipped further into significant negative territory YoY in Q2 – with India and Brazil reporting declines of       -36% and -19% respectively



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Global Inflation

% change YoY
  • Global
  • OECD
,Global,OECD 2011 Q1,3.4,2.3 2011 Q2,4.0,2.9 2011 Q3,4.2,3.1 2011 Q4,3.7,3.0 2012 Q1,3.2,2.7 2012 Q2,2.7,2.2 2012 Q3,2.5,2.0 2012 Q4,2.6,2.0 2013 Q1,2.5,1.7 2013 Q2,2.4,1.5 2013 Q3,2.5,1.7 2013 Q4,2.4,1.5 2014 Q1,2.2,1.6 2014 Q2,2.6,2.1 2014 Q3,2.4,1.9 2014 Q4,2.1,1.5 2015 Q1,1.8,0.6 2015 Q2,1.9,0.6 2015 Q3,1.9,0.6 2015 Q4,2.0,0.8 2016 Q1,2.1,1.1 2016 Q2,1.9,1.0 2016 Q3,1.9,1.1 2016 Q4,2.1,1.6 2017 Q1,2.4,2.4 2017 Q2,2.1,2.2 2017 Q3,2.2,2.2 2017 Q4,2.3,2.3 2018 Q1,2.3,2.2 2018 Q2,2.5,2.6 2018 Q3,2.9,2.9 2018 Q4,2.8,2.7 2019 Q1,2.4,2.2 2019 Q2,2.7,2.3 2019 Q3,2.4,1.9 2019 Q4,2.7,1.9 2020 Q1,2.9,2.1 2020 Q2,1.5,0.9
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Global inflation as represented by changes in Consumer Price Index appears to have eased significantly in Q2 to around 1½%, its lowest level in recent years

Most regional and national geographies have reflected this reduction in inflation rates

Appears to be driven by direct impact of Covid-driven recession on global markets (eg energy process) and weakness in in demand



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Global Energy Prices

Index 2010 = 100
  • Crude Oil (Average)
  • Natural Gas (Average)
  • Coal (Australia)
,Crude Oil (Average),Natural Gas (Average),Coal (Australia) 2008 Q1,120.6,163.8,115.3 2008 Q2,153.0,204.7,140.2 2008 Q3,146.4,188.2,164.6 2008 Q4,70.9,162.5,94.0 2009 Q1,55.8,119.7,72.7 2009 Q2,74.9,89.0,67.2 2009 Q3,74.9,76.6,67.2 2009 Q4,95.5,96.4,78.5 2010 Q1,97.5,111.5,96.2 2010 Q2,98.9,95.6,100.6 2010 Q3,95.5,98.8,94.4 2010 Q4,108.1,94.1,108.8 2011 Q1,126.2,103.8,130.4 2011 Q2,139.2,111.3,121.3 2011 Q3,130.4,112.9,122.6 2011 Q4,130.5,105.9,116.2 2012 Q1,142.3,95.6,115.0 2012 Q2,130.1,94.0,96.6 2012 Q3,130.1,99.7,90.4 2012 Q4,128.9,107.4,87.8 2013 Q1,133.0,109.6,93.9 2013 Q2,125.6,118.6,87.0 2013 Q3,135.9,108.4,78.2 2013 Q4,132.2,111.7,82.9 2014 Q1,131.2,127.8,77.9 2014 Q2,134.5,115.5,73.5 2014 Q3,127.0,102.0,68.6 2014 Q4,94.4,101.6,63.6 2015 Q1,65.3,85.6,61.9 2015 Q2,76.5,74.6,59.7 2015 Q3,61.7,72.7,58.1 2015 Q4,53.4,61.8,52.9 2016 Q1,41.4,52.6,51.5 2016 Q2,56.7,49.8,52.5 2016 Q3,56.6,60.3,68.2 2016 Q4,62.1,65.0,94.2 2017 Q1,66.9,68.9,82.5 2017 Q2,62.5,68.4,80.9 2017 Q3,63.5,66.9,94.4 2017 Q4,74.3,70.2,99.7 2018 Q1,81.7,74.5,103.9 2018 Q2,90.3,76.3,105.9 2018 Q3,92.4,82.8,118.3 2018 Q4,81.4,94.1,104.7 2019 Q1,76.5,72.5,96.8 2019 Q2,82.4,58.3,81.4 2019 Q3,75.5,54.3,68.6 2019 Q4,76.3,59.5,68.2 2020 Q1,62.1,49.7,68.7 2020 Q2,38.3,36.1,55.0
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Key global energy price indicators all fell again in Q2 with oil and gas prices at their lowest level in over 10 years while coal prices were edging down towards their 2016 low

Global oil prices were down over -50% YoY in Q2 with natural gas and coal down nearly -40%

European natural gas prices appear to have fallen more YoY than US prices in Q2 while Japanese prices are only marginally down



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Exchange Rates vs US Dollar

Index 2005 = 100
  • Euro
  • Sterling
  • Yen
  • Renminbi
,Euro,Sterling,Yen,Renminbi 2006 Q1,103.5,103.7,106.0,98.2 2006 Q2,99.0,99.6,103.8,97.8 2006 Q3,97.6,97.0,105.4,97.2 2006 Q4,96.4,94.9,106.8,96.0 2007 Q1,94.9,93.0,108.4,94.7 2007 Q2,92.3,91.5,109.5,93.7 2007 Q3,90.5,90.0,106.9,92.3 2007 Q4,85.8,88.9,102.6,90.7 2008 Q1,83.0,91.9,95.5,87.4 2008 Q2,79.6,92.3,94.8,84.9 2008 Q3,82.8,95.3,97.6,83.5 2008 Q4,94.2,116.1,87.2,83.4 2009 Q1,95.5,127.1,85.0,83.4 2009 Q2,91.4,117.6,88.3,83.3 2009 Q3,87.0,110.8,84.9,83.4 2009 Q4,84.2,111.3,81.4,83.3 2010 Q1,89.9,116.6,82.2,83.3 2010 Q2,97.9,122.4,83.5,83.3 2010 Q3,96.2,117.3,77.8,82.6 2010 Q4,91.6,115.1,74.9,81.3 2011 Q1,91.0,113.5,74.6,80.4 2011 Q2,86.4,111.5,74.0,79.4 2011 Q3,88.1,113.0,70.5,78.3 2011 Q4,92.3,115.7,70.2,77.4 2012 Q1,94.8,115.7,72.0,77.0 2012 Q2,97.0,115.0,72.7,77.0 2012 Q3,99.4,115.1,71.3,77.3 2012 Q4,95.8,113.2,73.7,76.9 2013 Q1,94.3,117.3,83.7,76.6 2013 Q2,95.2,118.4,89.6,75.7 2013 Q3,93.9,117.2,89.8,75.3 2013 Q4,91.4,112.3,91.1,74.8 2014 Q1,90.8,109.8,93.3,74.7 2014 Q2,90.7,108.0,92.7,75.2 2014 Q3,93.9,109.0,94.3,75.2 2014 Q4,99.6,114.9,103.9,74.9 2015 Q1,110.5,120.0,108.1,74.9 2015 Q2,112.5,118.7,110.1,74.7 2015 Q3,111.9,117.4,110.9,76.4 2015 Q4,113.7,119.9,110.1,78.0 2016 Q1,112.9,127.1,104.7,79.8 2016 Q2,110.1,126.8,98.0,79.7 2016 Q3,111.5,138.5,92.9,81.4 2016 Q4,115.4,146.5,99.2,83.4 2017 Q1,116.7,146.7,103.2,84.1 2017 Q2,113.1,142.1,100.8,83.8 2017 Q3,105.9,138.9,100.7,81.4 2017 Q4,105.6,137.0,102.5,80.7 2018 Q1,101.2,130.7,98.3,77.5 2018 Q2,104.4,133.7,99.0,77.9 2018 Q3,106.9,139.5,101.1,83.1 2018 Q4,109.0,141.4,102.3,84.5 2019 Q1,109.5,139.6,100.0,82.3 2019 Q2,110.7,141.5,99.7,83.3 2019 Q3,111.9,147.5,97.4,85.7 2019 Q4,112.3,141.3,98.6,85.9 2020 Q1,112.9,142.2,98.9,85.2 2020 Q2,113.0,146.5,97.6,86.5
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Key currencies continued their recent trends in Q2 with the US Dollar strengthening against the Euro, Sterling and the Chinese Renminbi

In contrast the Yen has strengthened vs the Dollar and these other major currencies

A number of currencies in developing economies have also weakened significantly sequentially and YoY in Q2 against the Dollar (and other major currencies) including some in L.Americas (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico), Russia and S.Africa



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