According to GlobalData, Australia and India will be the significant contributors for capacity growth in Asia and Oceania’s LNG Industry for the outlook period 2018 to 2022.
Australia is set to have the highest liquefaction capacity additions while India will have highest regasification capacity additions among all the countries in Asia and Oceania, said the data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s report ‘LNG Industry Outlook in Asia and Oceania to 2022’ forecasts total liquefaction capacity in Asia and Oceania to grow by 11% from 166.4 million tons per annum (mtpa) in 2018 to 184.7 mtpa by 2022. Similarly, the total regasification capacity is expected to grow by 43% from 24.7 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in 2018 to 35.3 tcf in 2022. Eight LNG liquefaction terminals and 67 regasification terminals are expected to commence operations in the regions by 2022.
Australia will lead Asia and Oceania both in terms of liquefaction capacity additions and capex. The country will have the highest liquefaction capacity additions of 11.5 mtpa, increasing from 87.8 mtpa in 2018 to 99.3 mtpa by 2022. The country is expected to spend $43.7bn or 65% of the region’s total capex on new build liquefaction terminals during the outlook period.
Soorya Tejomoortula, Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, explained, “Australia already has significant LNG liquefaction capacity and is one of the leading exporters of LNG globally. The country is further ramping up its liquefaction capacity due to abundant conventional and coal seam natural gas resources, and increasing global natural gas demand.”
GlobalData identifies Indonesia as the second highest country in Asia and Oceania, in terms of total liquefaction capacity additions for the outlook period. The country’s liquefaction capacity will reach 37.9 mtpa by 2022, with planned capacity additions of 3.8 mtpa during the period.
In terms of regasification capacity additions, India will lead Asia and Oceania with total additions of 4.1 tcf. The country’s regasification capacity would increase from 2.8 tcf in 2018 to 6.9 tcf by 2022. The country is expected to spend about $6.9bn on development of upcoming regasification terminals during the outlook period.
“India is driving the growth in global LNG regasification capacity due to its rapidly growing economy and thriving middle class population. The need to control growing pollution by replacing coal with natural gas for power generation is also driving natural gas demand in the country,” Tejomoortula added.
Bangladesh will be the next highest country globally with planned regasification capacity additions of 1.8 tcf by 2022. The country is expected to spend roughly $3.7bn on the development of new regasification terminals.
In terms of largest liquefaction terminal by capacity in the outlook period, Ichthys in Australia is the top planned LNG liquefaction terminal in Asia and Oceania with a capacity of 8.9 mtpa. The terminal is expected to start operations by 2018 with capex of $37bn.
In terms of largest regasification terminal by capacity, Yanam terminal in India is the top planned LNG regasification terminal with a capacity of 0.54 tcf. The terminal is expected to come online by 2019 with estimated capex of $0.43bn.
But, Qatar will maintain LNG dominance despite regional embargo.
In 2017, Qatar produced 18.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day (bcfd). Almost all natural gas comes from various developments on the North Field, which is considered the largest non-associated gas structure in the world. The field has a combined processing and export capacity of 77.4 million tons per annum (mtpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG), GlobalData explained.
The Qatargas and Rasgas projects are the largest contributors to production on the field and are joint ventures between Qatargas and various major international oil and gas companies, such as ExxonMobil and Total. With no new natural gas focused upstream developments planned to come online over the next couple of years, gas production is expected to remain steady out to 2020.
In 2020, the Barzan field is expected to come online and continue country-level natural gas production growth as the field ramps up to its targeted production of 1.4 bcfd. Following the ramp up of natural gas production at the Barzan field country-level, production is expected to remain steady until the North Field Expansion project comes online in 2023. This project aims to increase production from the North Field by 4.6 bcfd in the 5 to 7 year timeframe and is expected to contribute to increased LNG exports to cement Qatar’s stronghold over the global LNG market.
Without the planned Barzan and announced North Field Expansion projects coming online, Qatar’s production would likely fall into decline. With each project targeting different markets, both the LNG export capacity and domestic gas supply are expected to grow and Qatar’s natural gas production is expected to peak in 2025 at around 21.5 bcfd of marketed natural gas.
The availability of resources, capital and determination to maintain its energy independence and global LNG stronghold despite the political regional dispute seems to be spurring Qatar’s natural gas investment and places the country in a strong position to achieve its mid to long-term ambition to achieve an LNG export capacity of 100 mtpa.