This year’s bp Energy Outlook forecasts reduced EU demand for natural gas across all scenarios, sharp increases in LNG imports – and one environmental silver lining arising from the Ukraine war and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The EU’s desire to reduce its dependency on imported gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means natural gas demand in three scenarios (Accelerated, Net Zero, New Momentum) in 2030 is around 130-250bcm lower in this year’s Outlook relative to Energy Outlook 2022.
However the larger fall in Russian exports of pipeline gas means EU’s LNG imports in 2030 in New Momentum are around 70bcm higher than in 2019, the report forecasts.
“The remaining shortfall of natural gas left by the loss of Russian pipeline gas is met by increased pipeline imports from a combination of Norway, Algeria, and Azerbaijan,” it states.
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