Future of Energy event: Six insights shaping gas and LNG

Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, closed the Gas, LNG and Future of Energy 2025 conference in London by sharing his six key takeaways.

What will happen in Russia? 

“The spectre of Russia is likely to hang over this sector for some time. It’s a pretty low probability that we will see a lot more Russian gas out, but we have to be aware of that [war ending, sanctions lifted and Russian exports resuming].” 

Hydrogen omission 

“One of the noticeable things is the lack of discussion about hydrogen [although there was one dedicated session on CCUS, hydrogen and biomethane]. That’s good news [for this sector] as it means gas and LNG will be around for a long time.” 

But it was curious how little there was on LNG potentially serving as a hydrogen carrier and a bridge fuel while hydrogen technologies mature. Uniper CEO Michael Lewis said switching from natural gas to green hydrogen was “completely unrealistic“. 

Don’t bet against the US 

It was a phrase that cropped up on several occasions, usually in response to discussions around current policies, supply increases or market movements. “It’s pretty clear the Administration is full bore behind LNG exports, and we feel that the US is assured as the central pillar of LNG exports in future.” 

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Henry Hub differences 

“It was pretty obvious, for those of us who were here for both days, that Henry Hub is a point of difference. If we get to $5 and above over the next several years, it will change the economics of LNG exports from the US. But it’s not obvious what the alternatives are out there, of sufficient scale to replace it. So probably the US is going to dominate future growth in supply.” 

Preparing for the down cycle   

“The down cycle, I think we’re all agreed, is coming. It’s going to be challenging, but against that, long term demand looks very promising. In fact, the low prices we’re going to experience over the next few years is pretty good for demand, and we need an industry that looks to the long term and beyond the short-term blip, and to continue to invest because we’ll need that supply.” 

Broader ecosystem  

“We’ve heard a lot about what has become a healthy ecosystem, with lots of new players on the supply and demand side, and everything in between. That increased diversity means the industry is very well equipped to meet the challenges coming and deliver the growth.”