There is a strong use case for biogases, as set out in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) first-of-its-kind assessment on the outlook for biogases and biomethane.
Biogas can be used directly as heat by households and industry and to produce electricity, while biomethane – an upgraded form of biogas – has many advantages as a drop-in substitute for natural gas, reflected in the many market moves reported on gasworld’s site in recent months.
Spurred by more than 50 new policies globally, today’s sustainable production potential for biogas is nearly 1,000 bcme. That’s equivalent to a quarter of global natural gas demand.
The majority of the potential for sustainable biogases (80%) is in emerging market and developing economies, led by Brazil, China and India.
In fact,the potential in India is larger than its natural gas consumption. The US has the largest potential among advanced economies and the EU uses the largest share – around 40% – of its sustainable potential, compared with less than 5% in India.
But today’s volumes are small compared with future potential.
Biogas production could reach the equivalent of nearly 1 trillion cbm of natural gas each year from feedstocks that can be considered sustainable – such as wastes and residues that can be processed with existing technologies and do not compete with food systems.
In the power sector, capacity of biogas plants is projected to increase from 11GW in 2023 to 20GW in 2035, and use of biomethane triples due to its ability to replace natural gas in combined or open cycle gas turbines.
Much will hinge on overcoming investment barriers, the report notes, such as the long payback period for biogases, as well as concerns regarding feedstock availability over project lifetimes. Biomethane production costs exhibit a wide range, with 90% of the potential being between $10 per gigajoule (GJ) and $30/GJ.
Policy situation
In Europe, biogas production was initially supported by feed-in tariffs and relied on energy crops as an important feedstock.
Given the land use and biodiversity concerns associated with energy crops, this landscape has since changed, with several European countries implementing restrictions on their usage. The feedstock mix in Europe is now moving towards a mix of agricultural residues, animal manure, organic municipal solid waste, and industrial waste.
In China, household and farm biodigesters were central to biogas policies of the early 2000s, supporting rural development or waste management. As provinces have gained gas and electricity connections instead, the focus has now shifted to mid- and large-scale plants with diversified feedstock mixes.
In India, government schemes exist both for biogas from livestock waste in rural areas and organic waste in municipal urban areas, while in the US landfill gas is currently the main biogas feedstock, but this is set to change as new policies have been introduced that support biogas produced from manure on dairy farms.
Regulatory moves, such as speeding up permitting, are vital to accelerating the sector’s growth.
The report makes clear that biogas and biomethane could play a much larger role in the world energy system – especially at a time when energy security and local production are top of mind for many governments, said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
“The potential is particularly significant in emerging and developing economies, which are home to almost 80% of feedstocks that could be used to sustainably produce biogases. Our report highlights the additional actions that can allow policymakers to make full use of this valuable energy resource,” he said.
