The UK needs immediate, substantial and coordinated investment in Net Zero technologies, according to a new Energy Systems Catapult report.
The independent research and technology organisation lays out a detailed picture of the UK’s priorities in the next 30 years – and concludes the need to act now “is greater than it has ever been”.
The cost of meeting Net Zero is estimated at £100bn-£600bn, which is less than 1% of GDP, or roughly 9% more than we would be spending on the energy system without a Net Zero target.
“Throughout our analysis we have shown that there is little time for delay if we are to meet the complex challenge of reaching Net Zero by 2050. We believe that achieving this stretching target requires a change to more agile policymaking and regulation driven by real world testing and rapid feedback,” it notes.
“We must be planning ahead of need to ensure that society is prepared to accept the many changes we envisage and is ready to adopt new technologies and ways of consuming energy services – ideally helping co-create the design of new products and services ahead of need. Alongside this we must ensure that these changes are supported by suitable policy, regulation and market structures.”
Source: Energy Systems Catapult
Government must rapidly progress with the implementation of current mechanisms to support deployment of CCS, new fuels – particularly biomass and hydrogen – and CO2.
Across the 24 technology areas identified, the average first-of-a-kind demonstrator would need to be around 2030, meaning that all work to enable deployment will need to be done within approximately six years. Only four – solar farms, electricity network, offshore wind and heat electrification – are currently deployed at scale.
Its analysis shows that carbon capture and storage (CCS) in its various forms will be a critical component of any low-cost energy transition, along with low carbon hydrogen, whose production is likely to increase exponentially from 2030.
Across all simulations, it sees a total of between 128-178MtCO₂ captured per year by 2050.
CCS use in power generation starts to be significant around 2040 whilst use of DACCS comes last of all with low level roll out starting in 2040 before a big increase capture levels from 2045-2050 as the remaining emissions are abated.
Carbon capture through DACCS will result in between 38 and 48MtCO₂ collected a year by 2050, the report forecasts – although that sector alone would require investment in the order of £30bn. It anticipates use for synthetic fuel production from biomass starts in 2035 and reaches a peak in 2040.
Bioenergy with CCS is another critical important, with over 120TWh biomass consumed in 2050 across all scenarios.
Wind generation also requires significant future investment of up to £38bn to 2050 in scenarios with high levels of electrification.
Perhaps the most alarming five words are tucked away on page 74. “Decarbonisation occurs gradually over time,” it states, as timeframes for delivering Net Zero become ever shorter.
